Radian Group Stock Price Prediction
| RDN Stock | USD 34.58 0.59 1.74% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
51
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.01 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.92 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.9805 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.7408 | Wall Street Target Price 36.2857 |
Using Radian hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Radian Group from the perspective of Radian response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Radian using Radian's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Radian using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Radian's stock price.
Radian Short Interest
An investor who is long Radian may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Radian and may potentially protect profits, hedge Radian with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 33.1906 | Short Percent 0.0765 | Short Ratio 7.05 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.6 M | 50 Day MA 33.3202 |
Radian Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Radian's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Radian. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Radian can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Radian Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Radian's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Radian.
Radian Implied Volatility | 0.37 |
Radian's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Radian Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Radian's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Radian stock will not fluctuate a lot when Radian's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Radian to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Radian because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Radian after-hype prediction price | USD 34.92 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Radian contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Radian Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0231% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Radian trading at USD 34.58, that is roughly USD 0.007997 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Radian's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Radian Group options at the current volatility level of 0.37%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Radian |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Radian's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Radian After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Radian at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Radian or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Radian, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Radian Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Radian's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Radian's historical news coverage. Radian's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 33.25 and 36.59, respectively. We have considered Radian's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Radian is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Radian Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Radian Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Radian is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Radian backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Radian, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.67 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
34.58 | 34.92 | 0.26 |
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Radian Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January Radian Group is traded for 34.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Radian is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 34.92 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.26%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Radian is about 830.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 34.55. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.24 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 603.12 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.24 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Radian Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Radian Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Radian's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Radian's future price movements. Getting to know how Radian's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Radian may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ESNT | Essent Group | 0.26 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.96 | (2.51) | 11.43 | |
| NMIH | NMI Holdings | 0.24 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.60 | (3.63) | 9.75 | |
| MBI | MBIA Inc | (0.05) | 7 per month | 3.33 | 0.16 | 6.84 | (5.36) | 32.82 | |
| JRVR | James River Group | (0.13) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.47 | (4.22) | 31.98 | |
| AMBC | Ambac Financial Group | (0.79) | 7 per month | 2.44 | (0.02) | 2.81 | (3.00) | 17.94 | |
| AGO | Assured Guaranty | (0.85) | 9 per month | 1.30 | 0.06 | 2.32 | (2.60) | 10.52 | |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corp | (0.37) | 12 per month | 1.78 | (0.04) | 2.24 | (3.13) | 7.79 | |
| EIG | Employers Holdings | (0.14) | 9 per month | 1.17 | (0.01) | 2.00 | (2.11) | 12.08 | |
| ICCH | ICC Holdings | 0.02 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 0.83 | (0.82) | 4.57 |
Radian Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Radian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Radian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Radian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Radian Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Radian stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Radian Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Radian based on analysis of Radian hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Radian's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Radian's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0423 | 0.0323 | 0.0291 | 0.0305 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.69 | 3.64 | 4.19 | 3.3 |
Story Coverage note for Radian
The number of cover stories for Radian depends on current market conditions and Radian's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Radian is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Radian's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Radian Short Properties
Radian's future price predictability will typically decrease when Radian's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Radian Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Radian's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Radian's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 160.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 19 M |
Check out Radian Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Is Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Radian. If investors know Radian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Radian listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.01 | Dividend Share 0.96 | Earnings Share 3.86 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.068 |
The market value of Radian Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Radian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Radian's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Radian's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Radian's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Radian's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Radian's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Radian is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Radian's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.