Fossil Group Stock Technical Analysis
| FOSL Stock | USD 3.47 0.25 6.72% |
As of the 31st of January, Fossil shows the Mean Deviation of 4.41, coefficient of variation of 632.49, and Downside Deviation of 4.8. Fossil Group technical analysis allows you to utilize historical prices and volume patterns in order to determine a pattern that computes the direction of the firm's future prices. Please confirm Fossil Group variance, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the Value At Risk and skewness to decide if Fossil Group is priced favorably, providing market reflects its regular price of 3.47 per share. Given that Fossil has jensen alpha of 0.7291, we urge you to verify Fossil Group's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.
Fossil Momentum Analysis
Momentum indicators are widely used technical indicators which help to measure the pace at which the price of specific equity, such as Fossil, fluctuates. Many momentum indicators also complement each other and can be helpful when the market is rising or falling as compared to FossilFossil's Momentum analyses are specifically helpful, as they help investors time the market using mark points where the market can reverse. The reversal spots are usually identified through divergence between price movement and momentum.Fossil Analyst Consensus
| Target Price | Advice | # of Analysts | |
| 5.0 | Strong Sell | 0 | Odds |
Most Fossil analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Fossil stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Fossil Group, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to Fossil conference calls.
Fossil Analyst Advice DetailsIs Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fossil. Market participants price Fossil higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Fossil assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Earnings Share (1.11) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Fossil Group using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Fossil's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Fossil's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fossil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fossil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Fossil's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.
Fossil 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Fossil's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Fossil.
| 11/02/2025 |
| 01/31/2026 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Fossil on November 2, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Fossil Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in Fossil over 90 days. Fossil is related to or competes with Duluth Holdings, Kandi Technologies, Sleep Number, Plby, Vroom,, GrowGeneration Corp, and Clarus Corp. Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accesso... More
Fossil Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Fossil's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Fossil Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.8 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1471 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 26.8 | |||
| Value At Risk | (9.09) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.27 |
Fossil Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Fossil's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Fossil's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Fossil historical prices to predict the future Fossil's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1235 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.7291 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.4781 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1713 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3121 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fossil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fossil January 31, 2026 Technical Indicators
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1235 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.3221 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 4.41 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.41 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 4.8 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 632.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.58 | |||
| Variance | 31.16 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1471 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.7291 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.4781 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1713 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3121 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 26.8 | |||
| Value At Risk | (9.09) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 23.0 | |||
| Semi Variance | 19.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.56) | |||
| Skewness | 0.2401 | |||
| Kurtosis | 0.4426 |
Fossil Group Backtested Returns
Fossil is risky given 3 months investment horizon. Fossil Group secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.18, which denotes the company had a 0.18 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We are able to interpolate and collect twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 1.02% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use Fossil Downside Deviation of 4.8, coefficient of variation of 632.49, and Mean Deviation of 4.41 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. Fossil holds a performance score of 13 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 2.8, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Fossil will likely underperform. Use Fossil value at risk, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day median price , to analyze future returns on Fossil.
Auto-correlation | -0.01 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Fossil Group has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Fossil time series from 2nd of November 2025 to 17th of December 2025 and 17th of December 2025 to 31st of January 2026. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Fossil Group price movement. The serial correlation of -0.01 indicates that just 1.0% of current Fossil price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.01 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.16 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
Fossil technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
Fossil Group Technical Analysis
The output start index for this execution was twenty-four with a total number of output elements of thirty-seven. The Average True Range was developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1970s. It is one of components of the Welles Wilder Directional Movement indicators. The ATR is a measure of Fossil Group volatility. High ATR values indicate high volatility, and low values indicate low volatility.
About Fossil Technical Analysis
The technical analysis module can be used to analyzes prices, returns, volume, basic money flow, and other market information and help investors to determine the real value of Fossil Group on a daily or weekly bases. We use both bottom-up as well as top-down valuation methodologies to arrive at the intrinsic value of Fossil Group based on its technical analysis. In general, a bottom-up approach, as applied to this company, focuses on Fossil Group price pattern first instead of the macroeconomic environment surrounding Fossil Group. By analyzing Fossil's financials, daily price indicators, and related drivers such as dividends, momentum ratios, and various types of growth rates, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Fossil's intrinsic value. As compared to a bottom-up approach, our top-down model examines the macroeconomic factors that affect the industry/economy before zooming in to Fossil specific price patterns or momentum indicators. Please read more on our technical analysis page.
| 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.001856 | 0.002978 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.0888 | 0.0844 |
Fossil January 31, 2026 Technical Indicators
Most technical analysis of Fossil help investors determine whether a current trend will continue and, if not, when it will shift. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fossil from various momentum indicators to cycle indicators. When you analyze Fossil charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at different other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1235 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.3221 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 4.41 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.41 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 4.8 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 632.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.58 | |||
| Variance | 31.16 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1471 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.7291 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.4781 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1713 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3121 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 26.8 | |||
| Value At Risk | (9.09) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 23.0 | |||
| Semi Variance | 19.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.56) | |||
| Skewness | 0.2401 | |||
| Kurtosis | 0.4426 |
Fossil January 31, 2026 Daily Trend Indicators
Traders often use several different daily volumes and price technical indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Fossil stock. With literally thousands of different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 47,865 | ||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.78) | ||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.93 | ||
| Day Median Price | 3.55 | ||
| Day Typical Price | 3.52 | ||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.20) |
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Fossil Group. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in real. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Is Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fossil. Market participants price Fossil higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Fossil assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Earnings Share (1.11) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Fossil Group using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Fossil's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Fossil's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fossil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fossil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Fossil's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.