Fossil Group Stock Volatility
| FOSL Stock | USD 1.15 0.05 4.17% |
Fossil Group secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0032, which denotes the company had a -0.0032% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Fossil Group exposes twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Fossil's Mean Deviation of 3.33, downside deviation of 4.12, and Coefficient Of Variation of 6522.99 to check the risk estimate we provide. Key indicators related to Fossil's volatility include:
30 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 30 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Fossil Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Fossil daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Fossil's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Fossil volatility.
Fossil |
Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Fossil at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Fossil stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower their average cost per share, thereby improving the overall portfolio performance when market normalizes.
Moving together with Fossil Stock
Moving against Fossil Stock
| 0.64 | FEBO | Fenbo Holdings | PairCorr |
| 0.55 | WLDS | Wearable Devices | PairCorr |
| 0.55 | EZGO | EZGO Technologies | PairCorr |
| 0.43 | DOOO | BRP Inc Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
Fossil Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Fossil's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Fossil stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Fossil stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Fossil's beta of -0.38 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Fossil stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Fossil Group shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. Fossil Group is a potential penny stock. Although Fossil may be in fact a good instrument to invest, many penny stocks are speculative in nature and are subject to artificial price hype. Please make sure you totally understand the upside potential and downside risk of investing in Fossil Group. We encourage investors to look for signals such as email spams, message board hypes, claims of breakthroughs, volume upswings, sudden news releases, promotions that are not reported, or demotions released before SEC filings. Please also check biographies and work history of current and past company officers before investing in high volatility instruments, penny stocks, or equities with microcap classification. You can indeed make money on Fossil instrument if you perfectly time your entry and exit. However, remember that penny stocks that have been the subject of artificial hype usually unable to maintain their increased share price for more than just a few days. The price of a promoted high volatility instrument will almost always revert back. The only way to increase shareholder value is through legitimate performance backed up by solid fundamentals.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Fossil Group Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Fossil correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Fossil Beta |
Fossil standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 4.32 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Fossil's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Fossil's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in fossil stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Fossil.
Fossil Group Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Fossil stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Fossil's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Fossil's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Fossil's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Fossil's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Fossil's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Fossil's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Fossil's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Fossil Group Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Fossil Projected Return Density Against Market
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Fossil Group has a beta of -0.3825 . This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Fossil are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Fossil Group is likely to outperform the market.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Fossil or Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Fossil's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Fossil stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Fossil Group has an alpha of 0.089, implying that it can generate a 0.089 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Fossil Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Fossil Stock Risk Measures
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Fossil is -31046.37. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 18.69 and standard deviation of 4.32. The mean deviation of Fossil Group is currently at 3.3. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.75
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.38 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0067 |
Fossil Stock Return Volatility
Fossil historical daily return volatility represents how much of Fossil stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company inherits 4.3232% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7608% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Fossil Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Fossil or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Fossil may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Fossil's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Fossil and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Fossil fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Selling And Marketing Expenses | 157.3 M | 241.8 M | |
| Market Cap | 201.1 M | 371.1 M |
Fossil's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Fossil Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Fossil's price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Fossil's volatility to invest better
Higher Fossil's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Fossil Group stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Fossil Group stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Fossil Group investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Fossil's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Fossil's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Fossil Investment Opportunity
Fossil Group has a volatility of 4.32 and is 5.68 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Fossil Group is lower than 38 percent of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. You can use Fossil Group to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The stock experiences a very speculative upward sentiment. Check odds of Fossil to be traded at $1.0925 in 90 days.Good diversification
The correlation between Fossil Group and DJI is -0.07 (i.e., Good diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Fossil Group and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Fossil Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fossil's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fossil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Fossil stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0198 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.14) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 3.33 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.81 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 4.12 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 6522.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.33 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Fossil Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
| Visa vs. Fossil | ||
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| Alphabet vs. Fossil | ||
| Ford vs. Fossil | ||
| Citigroup vs. Fossil | ||
| Procter Gamble vs. Fossil | ||
| NVIDIA vs. Fossil | ||
| Tesla vs. Fossil | ||
| GM vs. Fossil |
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Fossil as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Fossil's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Fossil's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Fossil Group.
When determining whether Fossil Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze Fossil's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Fossil's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Fossil Stock, refer to the following important reports: Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Fossil Group. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fossil. If investors know Fossil will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fossil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Earnings Share (2.33) | Revenue Per Share 23.195 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.16) | Return On Assets (0.04) |
The market value of Fossil Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fossil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fossil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fossil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fossil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fossil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fossil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fossil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fossil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.