TRAINLINE PLC (Germany) Volatility

2T9A Stock  EUR 4.80  0.06  1.23%   
TRAINLINE PLC appears to be slightly risky, given 3 months investment horizon. TRAINLINE PLC LS retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.2, which indicates the firm had a 0.2% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for TRAINLINE PLC, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review TRAINLINE PLC's risk adjusted performance of 0.1662, and Downside Deviation of 2.1 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. Key indicators related to TRAINLINE PLC's volatility include:
30 Days Market Risk
Chance Of Distress
30 Days Economic Sensitivity
TRAINLINE PLC Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of TRAINLINE daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use TRAINLINE's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of TRAINLINE PLC volatility.
  
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as TRAINLINE PLC can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game as hey may decide to buy additional stocks of TRAINLINE PLC at lower prices to lower their average cost per share. Similarly, when the prices of TRAINLINE PLC's stock rise, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities.

Moving together with TRAINLINE Stock

  0.71CLVB TRIPCOM GROUP DLPairCorr
  0.92WD5A TRAVEL LEISURE DLPairCorr
  0.82TUI1 TUI AGPairCorr
  0.66MY1 MakeMyTrip LimitedPairCorr
  0.81LI4 Lindblad ExpeditionsPairCorr

Moving against TRAINLINE Stock

  0.78OB8 PT Barito PacificPairCorr
  0.66TCID Telkom Indonesia TbkPairCorr
  0.62BYRA PT Bank RakyatPairCorr
  0.47NVPJ TMBThanachart Bank PublicPairCorr

TRAINLINE PLC Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

TRAINLINE PLC's beta coefficient measures the volatility of TRAINLINE stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents TRAINLINE stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, TRAINLINE PLC's beta of -0.37 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk TRAINLINE PLC stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. TRAINLINE PLC LS currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.15 and Jensen Alpha of 0.52. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure TRAINLINE PLC's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact TRAINLINE PLC's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze TRAINLINE PLC LS Demand Trend
Check current 90 days TRAINLINE PLC correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)

TRAINLINE Beta

    
  -0.37  
TRAINLINE standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  2.39  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by TRAINLINE PLC's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of TRAINLINE PLC's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in trainline stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in TRAINLINE PLC.

TRAINLINE PLC LS Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which TRAINLINE PLC stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with TRAINLINE PLC's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of TRAINLINE PLC's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of TRAINLINE PLC's volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures TRAINLINE PLC's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict TRAINLINE PLC's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for TRAINLINE PLC's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on TRAINLINE PLC's to be redeemed at a future date.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. TRAINLINE PLC LS Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.

TRAINLINE PLC Projected Return Density Against Market

Assuming the 90 days trading horizon TRAINLINE PLC LS has a beta of -0.3656 . This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding TRAINLINE PLC are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, TRAINLINE PLC LS is likely to outperform the market.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to TRAINLINE PLC or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that TRAINLINE PLC's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a TRAINLINE stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
TRAINLINE PLC LS has an alpha of 0.523, implying that it can generate a 0.52 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Predicted Return Density   
       Returns  
TRAINLINE PLC's volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how trainline stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives a TRAINLINE PLC Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

TRAINLINE PLC Stock Risk Measures

Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the coefficient of variation of TRAINLINE PLC is 490.47. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 5.69 and standard deviation of 2.39. The mean deviation of TRAINLINE PLC LS is currently at 1.47. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.77
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.52
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.37
σ
Overall volatility
2.39
Ir
Information ratio 0.15

TRAINLINE PLC Stock Return Volatility

TRAINLINE PLC historical daily return volatility represents how much of TRAINLINE PLC stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company assumes 2.386% volatility of returns over the 90 days investment horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7796% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance 
       Timeline  

About TRAINLINE PLC Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of TRAINLINE PLC or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of TRAINLINE PLC may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to TRAINLINE's beta indicator, it measures the risk of TRAINLINE PLC and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of TRAINLINE PLC fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Trainline Plc operates an independent rail and coach travel platform that sells rail and coach tickets worldwide. The company was founded in 1997 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. TRAINLINE PLC is traded on Frankfurt Stock Exchange in Germany.
TRAINLINE PLC's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on TRAINLINE Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much TRAINLINE PLC's price varies over time.

3 ways to utilize TRAINLINE PLC's volatility to invest better

Higher TRAINLINE PLC's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of TRAINLINE PLC LS stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. TRAINLINE PLC LS stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:
  • Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of TRAINLINE PLC LS investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
  • Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in TRAINLINE PLC's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
  • Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of TRAINLINE PLC's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Remember it's essential to remember that stock volatility is just one of many factors to consider when making investment decisions, and it should be used in conjunction with other fundamental and technical analysis tools.

TRAINLINE PLC Investment Opportunity

TRAINLINE PLC LS has a volatility of 2.39 and is 3.06 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of TRAINLINE PLC LS is lower than 21 percent of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. You can use TRAINLINE PLC LS to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The stock experiences a somewhat bearish sentiment, but the market may correct it shortly. Check odds of TRAINLINE PLC to be traded at €4.66 in 90 days.

Good diversification

The correlation between TRAINLINE PLC LS and DJI is -0.12 (i.e., Good diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding TRAINLINE PLC LS and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

TRAINLINE PLC Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of TRAINLINE PLC's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TRAINLINE PLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of TRAINLINE PLC stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

TRAINLINE PLC Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against TRAINLINE PLC as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. TRAINLINE PLC's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, TRAINLINE PLC's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to TRAINLINE PLC LS.

Complementary Tools for TRAINLINE Stock analysis

When running TRAINLINE PLC's price analysis, check to measure TRAINLINE PLC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TRAINLINE PLC is operating at the current time. Most of TRAINLINE PLC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TRAINLINE PLC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TRAINLINE PLC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TRAINLINE PLC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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