Aflac Incorporated Stock Volatility

AFL Stock  USD 114.46  1.13  1.00%   
Aflac Incorporated's price history translates into the risk numbers analysts use to compare it with safer or riskier names. Its long-term beta is 0.62, meaning it tends to be less volatile than the market as a whole. The stock shows minimal price volatility over the last 3 months.

Sharpe Ratio = -0.0259

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Latest disclosures for Aflac Incorporated show a Market Risk Adjusted Performance of -0.1%, a Risk of 1.06, and a Risk Adjusted Performance of -0.02%. Moving average data indicates the stock is not operating at maximum efficiency.
Key indicators related to Aflac Incorporated's volatility include:
90 Days Market Risk
Chance Of Distress
90 Days Economic Sensitivity

Key risk metrics for Aflac Incorporated (3 Months):

 Beta
0.36
 Alpha
-0.04
 Risk
1.06
 Sharpe Ratio
-0.03
 Expected Return
-0.03

Moving together with Aflac Stock

  0.83JPM JPMorgan ChasePairCorr
  0.86BA BoeingPairCorr

Moving Against Aflac Stock

  0.8ELGL Element GlobalPairCorr
  0.73XOM Exxon Mobil CorpPairCorr
  0.52T ATT IncPairCorr

Sensitivity To Market

The beta coefficient of 0.36 for Aflac Incorporated measures how its returns respond to broader market changes. In regression terms, beta captures the slope between asset returns and index returns. Historical volatility is currently near 1.06%. This analysis separates observed movement from interpretation for Aflac Incorporated. Standard deviation (1.06%) and downside deviation (0.0%) describe the range without implying direction. Equity volatility compresses in calm markets and expands quickly when uncertainty increases. Stock dispersion changes materially during earnings seasons and macro data releases.
Current 90-day Aflac Incorporated correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)
α-0.0409   β0.36
3 Months Beta |Aflac Incorporated Demand Trend
Current 90-day Aflac Incorporated correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)

Downside Risk

Aflac standard deviation over the selected horizon reflects the magnitude of daily price swings relative to the historical average. A rising standard deviation for Aflac over successive periods signals increasing price uncertainty.
Standard Deviation
    
  1.06  
Understanding the asymmetry between upside and downside risk is critical for Aflac Incorporated analysis. Total price dispersion includes upside, while downside deviation captures only loss risk in Aflac Incorporated's returns. Latest disclosures for Aflac Incorporated show a Maximum Drawdown of 4.56.

Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of Aflac Incorporated stock returns over a given period of time. Volatility measures how much Aflac Incorporated's stock price deviates from its average over a period.
Transformation
This analysis covers sixty-one data points across the selected time horizon. The Average Price transformation calculates the mean of Aflac Incorporated's open, high, low, and close for each trading period. By incorporating all four price components equally, it provides a balanced representation of each period's trading activity. Compared to using the closing price alone, the average price reduces the influence of end-of-day positioning and can serve as a smoother input for other technical indicators.

Projected Return Density Against Market

Over a 90-day investment horizon, Aflac Incorporated has a beta of 0.3644. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aflac Incorporated's average returns tend to increase less than the benchmark. However, during a bear market, the loss from holding Aflac Incorporated tends to be smaller as well.
Aflac Incorporated carries exposure to broad market movements as well as company or sector-specific developments. While portfolio diversification can reduce asset-level risk, systematic volatility cannot be avoided. Standard deviation and beta quantify this exposure. Latest disclosures for Aflac Incorporated show a Mean Deviation of 0.80 and a Standard Deviation of 1.06.
Aflac Incorporated has a negative alpha, implying that risk has not been adequately compensated by returns. AFL is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Predicted Return Distribution   
       Density  
Aflac Incorporated's volatility is typically evaluated with standard deviation and beta. Standard deviation reflects how far Aflac Incorporated's returns usually move from the mean over the selected horizon.

What Drives Aflac Incorporated's Price Volatility?

Industry Dynamics

Competitive pressure, margin shifts, or structural changes in the Insurance sector can alter Aflac Incorporated's day-to-day volatility profile.

Political and Economic Environment

Broad market tone, policy uncertainty, and recession or expansion signals shape volatility conditions for Aflac Incorporated.

Aflac Incorporated's Company-Specific Factors

Unexpected business updates, leadership changes, or legal outcomes can drive outsized moves in Aflac Incorporated's stock.

Stock Risk Measures

Over a 90-day investment horizon, the coefficient of variation of Aflac Incorporated is -3864.22. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 1.11 and standard deviation of 1.06. The mean deviation of Aflac Incorporated is currently at 0.8. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.96
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.0409
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.36
σ
Overall volatility
1.06
Ir
Information ratio -0.0447

Stock Return Volatility

Volatility for Aflac Incorporated quantifies the day-to-day dispersion of stock returns around their historical average. The company carries 1.0551% return volatility across the 90-day horizon. As a benchmark, Dow Jones Industrial reported 0.9716% volatility on return distribution over a 90-day investment horizon.
 Performance 
       Timeline  

Related Correlations Analysis


Correlation Matchups

Over a given time period, the two securities move together when the Correlation Coefficient is positive. Conversely, the two assets move in opposite directions when the Correlation Coefficient is negative. Determining your positions' relationship to each other is valuable for analyzing and projecting your portfolio's future expected return and risk.

High positive correlations

CNOMFC
BHFLNC
CNOMET
PRIMFC
MFCMET
CNOPRI
  

High negative correlations

UNMPRU

Risk-Adjusted Indicators

Headline performance for Aflac Stock may not fully reflect how the business compares across its competitive set. Peer-relative risk metrics add context on drawdown behavior, consistency, and return quality. These indicators are quantitative in nature and measure volatility and risk-adjusted expected returns across different positions.

Risk Metrics, Assumptions & Methodology

Standard deviation for Aflac Incorporated measures how widely returns scatter around their average over a given period. Higher dispersion implies a wider range of plausible outcomes for any given holding period. Aflac Incorporated has a market cap of 58.44 billion, P/E of 9.27, ROE of 16.47%.

Aflac Incorporated data is compiled from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and standardized for comparability. Volatility and downside metrics are estimated from historical return dispersion.

Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Ellen Johnson, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board

Volatility Profile Summary

Recent data suggests that Aflac Incorporated is more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial by approximately 1.09x over the selected horizon. This differential reflects the relative dispersion of returns and frames how the asset responds to broader market conditions. Observed price behavior indicates modest directional movement within the current volatility regime. Across the current 90-day horizon, that places the security below 9% of the broader equity and portfolio universe on a pure volatility basis. This positioning reflects relative dispersion compared to peers rather than extreme instability.

Aflac Incorporated with characteristics aligned to broad market upside participation. This short-horizon analysis focuses on what the latest move may imply for immediate market context. It is intended to separate routine noise from more speculative bursts in price action. a moderate upward price movement. Return distributions derived from historical modeling outline a range of potential outcomes over the selected 90-day horizon. View Aflac Incorporated probability analysis.

Minimal diversification benefit
The correlation between Aflac Incorporated and Dow Jones is 0.91, which Macroaxis classifies as Minimal diversification benefit for the selected horizon. Lower overlap tends to improve diversification, while higher overlap means both positions carry similar risk.

Additional Risk Indicators

Secondary risk indicators for Aflac Incorporated evaluate exposure beyond standard deviation, beta, or one headline volatility measure. A thorough risk review clarifies whether current exposure warrants maintenance, reduction, or offset elsewhere in the portfolio.

Aflac Incorporated Suggested Diversification Pairs

A pair-trading setup around Aflac Incorporated shifts the return benchmark from the broad market to a second position, altering the risk profile. A disciplined pair structure still requires monitoring because correlation weakens when market regimes change.
Risk reduction through pair trading is real but has limits - not every type of exposure can be offset by a second leg. Aflac Incorporated's exposure to overall market risk stays intact regardless of pairing. The value of a second leg lies in reducing Aflac Incorporated's idiosyncratic risk - the part that comes from company-level events rather than macro conditions.

More Resources for Aflac Stock Analysis

Understanding Aflac Incorporated starts with its core financial statements, trend data, and ratio analysis. The reports below outline key financial context for Aflac Incorporated Stock: