AES Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AES Stock | USD 14.19 0.25 1.73% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of The AES on the next trading day is expected to be 13.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.97. AES Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of AES's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.253 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6181 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.1559 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.3136 | Wall Street Target Price 15.2917 |
Using AES hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The AES from the perspective of AES response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AES using AES's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AES using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AES's stock price.
AES Short Interest
An investor who is long AES may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about AES and may potentially protect profits, hedge AES with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 12.7137 | Short Percent 0.0342 | Short Ratio 3.11 | Shares Short Prior Month 23.1 M | 50 Day MA 14.0176 |
AES Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AES's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AES. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AES can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around The AES. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AES's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AES.
AES Implied Volatility | 0.37 |
AES's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of The AES stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AES's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AES stock will not fluctuate a lot when AES's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of The AES on the next trading day is expected to be 13.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.97. AES after-hype prediction price | USD 14.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AES to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 AES Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast AES's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in AES's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for AES stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current AES's open interest, investors have to compare it to AES's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of AES is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in AES. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
AES Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AES price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AES using various technical indicators. When you analyze AES charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the AES's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1994-03-31 | Previous Quarter 1.4 B | Current Value 1.8 B | Quarterly Volatility 692.8 M |
AES Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of The AES on the next trading day is expected to be 13.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AES Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AES's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AES Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AES | AES Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AES Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AES's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AES's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.22 and 15.41, respectively. We have considered AES's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AES stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AES stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2139 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1963 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.014 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.9736 |
Predictive Modules for AES
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AES. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AES's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for AES
For every potential investor in AES, whether a beginner or expert, AES's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AES Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AES. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AES's price trends.AES Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AES stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AES could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AES by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AES Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AES's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AES's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AES Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AES stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AES shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AES stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The AES entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
AES Risk Indicators
The analysis of AES's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AES's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aes stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Variance | 2.51 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.9 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.84 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.34) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for AES Stock Analysis
When running AES's price analysis, check to measure AES's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AES is operating at the current time. Most of AES's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AES's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AES's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AES to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.