AES Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| AES Stock | USD 14.25 0.36 2.46% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of The AES on the next trading day is expected to be 14.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.53. AES Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of AES's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.253 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6181 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.1616 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.3121 | Wall Street Target Price 15.2083 |
Using AES hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The AES from the perspective of AES response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AES using AES's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AES using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AES's stock price.
AES Short Interest
An investor who is long AES may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about AES and may potentially protect profits, hedge AES with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 12.751 | Short Percent 0.0342 | Short Ratio 3.11 | Shares Short Prior Month 23.1 M | 50 Day MA 14.0192 |
AES Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AES's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AES. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AES can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around The AES. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
AES Implied Volatility | 0.58 |
AES's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of The AES stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AES's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AES stock will not fluctuate a lot when AES's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of The AES on the next trading day is expected to be 14.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.53. AES after-hype prediction price | USD 14.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AES to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AES contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that The AES will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0363% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With AES trading at USD 14.25, that is roughly USD 0.005166 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating AES's daily price movement you should consider acquiring The AES options at the current volatility level of 0.58%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 AES Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast AES's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in AES's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for AES stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current AES's open interest, investors have to compare it to AES's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of AES is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in AES. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
AES Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AES price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AES using various technical indicators. When you analyze AES charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AES Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of The AES on the next trading day is expected to be 14.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AES Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AES's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AES Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AES | AES Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AES Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AES's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AES's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.52 and 15.98, respectively. We have considered AES's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AES stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AES stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.4839 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.001 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1922 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0137 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.53 |
Predictive Modules for AES
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AES. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AES's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AES After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AES at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AES or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AES, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AES Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AES's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AES's historical news coverage. AES's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.52 and 15.98, respectively. We have considered AES's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AES is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AES is based on 3 months time horizon.
AES Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AES is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AES backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AES, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 16 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.25 | 14.25 | 0.00 |
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AES Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January AES is traded for 14.25. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. AES is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on AES is about 38925.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.25. About 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of AES was presently reported as 5.43. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.09. AES last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2026. The entity had 2:1 split on the 2nd of June 2000. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 16 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AES to cross-verify your projections.AES Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AES's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AES's future price movements. Getting to know how AES's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AES may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BIP | Brookfield Infrastructure Partners | (0.04) | 9 per month | 1.05 | (0.04) | 1.57 | (1.59) | 5.53 | |
| ELPC | Companhia Paranaense de | 0.14 | 8 per month | 2.78 | 0.08 | 4.74 | (4.17) | 13.36 | |
| CIG-C | Energy of Minas | 0.01 | 6 per month | 2.06 | 0.05 | 4.09 | (3.15) | 12.96 | |
| WTRG | Essential Utilities | (0.25) | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.17 | (2.28) | 6.22 | |
| BEP | Brookfield Renewable Partners | (0.41) | 10 per month | 1.62 | (0.04) | 3.19 | (2.29) | 10.81 | |
| OGE | OGE Energy | (0.04) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 1.24 | (1.77) | 3.57 | |
| PNW | Pinnacle West Capital | 0.56 | 9 per month | 0.87 | (0.08) | 1.62 | (1.41) | 4.17 | |
| CIG | Companhia Energetica de | (0.01) | 4 per month | 2.13 | 0.06 | 2.96 | (3.20) | 9.11 | |
| ENEAY | ENEA S A | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for AES
For every potential investor in AES, whether a beginner or expert, AES's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AES Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AES. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AES's price trends.AES Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AES stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AES could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AES by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AES Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AES stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AES shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AES stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The AES entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 219560.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.77) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.39 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.34 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.31) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.36) |
AES Risk Indicators
The analysis of AES's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AES's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aes stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Variance | 2.86 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.14 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.44) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AES
The number of cover stories for AES depends on current market conditions and AES's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AES is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AES's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AES Short Properties
AES's future price predictability will typically decrease when AES's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of The AES often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AES's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AES's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 713 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 B |
Additional Tools for AES Stock Analysis
When running AES's price analysis, check to measure AES's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AES is operating at the current time. Most of AES's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AES's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AES's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AES to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.