AGCO Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| AGCO Stock | USD 135.77 2.21 1.65% |
AGCO Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the rsi of AGCO's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using AGCO hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AGCO Corporation from the perspective of AGCO response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of AGCO Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 119.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 203.42. AGCO after-hype prediction price | USD 135.96 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AGCO to cross-verify your projections. AGCO Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AGCO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AGCO using various technical indicators. When you analyze AGCO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AGCO Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 11th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of AGCO Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 119.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.33, mean absolute percentage error of 21.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 203.42.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AGCO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AGCO's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AGCO Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AGCO | AGCO Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
AGCO Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AGCO's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AGCO's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 117.45 and 121.56, respectively. We have considered AGCO's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AGCO stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AGCO stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.1843 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.3347 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0294 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 203.4156 |
Predictive Modules for AGCO
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AGCO. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AGCO's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AGCO After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AGCO at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AGCO or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AGCO, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AGCO Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AGCO's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AGCO's historical news coverage. AGCO's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 133.90 and 138.02, respectively. We have considered AGCO's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AGCO is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AGCO is based on 3 months time horizon.
AGCO Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AGCO is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AGCO backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AGCO, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.39 | 2.06 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
135.77 | 135.96 | 0.52 |
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AGCO Hype Timeline
AGCO is presently traded for 135.77. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.31. AGCO is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 135.96 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.52%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.39%. The volatility of related hype on AGCO is about 259.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 136.08. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 10.08 B. Net Income was 726.5 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.57 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AGCO to cross-verify your projections.AGCO Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AGCO's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AGCO's future price movements. Getting to know how AGCO's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AGCO may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OSK | Oshkosh | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.17 | 0.20 | 5.08 | (2.27) | 9.22 | |
| IESC | IES Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.01 | 0.09 | 7.38 | (5.13) | 28.38 | |
| PRIM | Primoris Services | 7.54 | 9 per month | 2.67 | 0.09 | 5.61 | (4.72) | 14.82 | |
| TFII | TFI International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.19 | 0.25 | 3.83 | (2.32) | 9.73 | |
| TTC | Toro Co | 0.97 | 11 per month | 0.65 | 0.19 | 2.94 | (1.82) | 13.49 | |
| SAIA | Saia Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.84 | 0.14 | 7.28 | (3.15) | 11.84 | |
| SSD | Simpson Manufacturing | 0.05 | 3 per month | 1.16 | 0.14 | 3.49 | (2.17) | 6.98 | |
| VMI | Valmont Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.20 | 0.11 | 2.45 | (2.28) | 5.99 | |
| ZWS | Zurn Elkay Water | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.04 | 0.04 | 2.02 | (1.75) | 11.28 | |
| PSN | Parsons Corp | (0.63) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.15 | (3.07) | 25.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for AGCO
For every potential investor in AGCO, whether a beginner or expert, AGCO's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AGCO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AGCO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AGCO's price trends.AGCO Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AGCO stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AGCO could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AGCO by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AGCO Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AGCO stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AGCO shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AGCO stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AGCO Corporation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 42735.05 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3953 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 132.99 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 133.91 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 3.89 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.21 |
AGCO Risk Indicators
The analysis of AGCO's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AGCO's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting agco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.06 | |||
| Variance | 4.22 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.32 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AGCO
The number of cover stories for AGCO depends on current market conditions and AGCO's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AGCO is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AGCO's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AGCO Short Properties
AGCO's future price predictability will typically decrease when AGCO's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AGCO Corporation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AGCO's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AGCO's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 74.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 861.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AGCO to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Will Agricultural & Farm Machinery sector continue expanding? Could AGCO diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AGCO. If investors know AGCO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every AGCO data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding AGCO requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects AGCO's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what AGCO's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push AGCO's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that AGCO's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether AGCO represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, AGCO's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.