Alerus Financial Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| ALRS Stock | USD 23.66 0.84 3.43% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Alerus Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 23.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.82. Alerus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Alerus Financial's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.5 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.582 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.5 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.526 | Wall Street Target Price 25.2 |
Using Alerus Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alerus Financial Corp from the perspective of Alerus Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alerus Financial using Alerus Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alerus using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alerus Financial's stock price.
Alerus Financial Implied Volatility | 0.89 |
Alerus Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alerus Financial Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alerus Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alerus Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alerus Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Alerus Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 23.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.82. Alerus Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 25.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alerus Financial to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Alerus contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Alerus Financial Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0556% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Alerus Financial trading at USD 23.66, that is roughly USD 0.0132 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Alerus Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Alerus Financial Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.89%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Alerus Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alerus Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Alerus Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Alerus Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alerus Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alerus Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alerus Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alerus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Alerus Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alerus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alerus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alerus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alerus Financial Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Alerus Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 23.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alerus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alerus Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alerus Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alerus Financial | Alerus Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alerus Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alerus Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alerus Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.26 and 25.53, respectively. We have considered Alerus Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alerus Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alerus Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.7645 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4069 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0182 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.8191 |
Predictive Modules for Alerus Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alerus Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alerus Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alerus Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alerus Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alerus Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alerus Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alerus Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alerus Financial's historical news coverage. Alerus Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.42 and 26.58, respectively. We have considered Alerus Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alerus Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alerus Financial Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alerus Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alerus Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alerus Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alerus Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.63 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
23.66 | 25.00 | 0.81 |
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Alerus Financial Hype Timeline
Alerus Financial Corp is presently traded for 23.66. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Alerus is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 25.0 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.81%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Alerus Financial is about 1164.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.69. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 330.41 M. Net Income was 17.78 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 275.45 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alerus Financial to cross-verify your projections.Alerus Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alerus Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alerus Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Alerus Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alerus Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BWB | Bridgewater Bancshares | (0.14) | 10 per month | 1.18 | 0.05 | 3.50 | (2.33) | 6.37 | |
| AROW | Arrow Financial | 0.25 | 10 per month | 1.10 | 0.17 | 3.59 | (2.70) | 9.60 | |
| NPB | Northpointe Bancshares | (0.08) | 7 per month | 1.48 | 0.02 | 3.48 | (3.05) | 8.07 | |
| SHBI | Shore Bancshares | 0.23 | 10 per month | 0.84 | 0.15 | 3.11 | (1.59) | 6.54 | |
| BHB | Bar Harbor Bankshares | 0.28 | 8 per month | 1.32 | 0.12 | 3.58 | (2.17) | 8.17 | |
| MSBI | Midland States Bancorp | 0.76 | 8 per month | 1.57 | 0.22 | 6.49 | (1.71) | 14.42 | |
| HONE | HarborOne Bancorp | (0.09) | 17 per month | 1.78 | (0.05) | 3.37 | (3.10) | 13.38 | |
| SMBK | SmartFinancial | (0.14) | 8 per month | 1.22 | 0.12 | 2.98 | (2.13) | 7.77 | |
| TCBX | Third Coast Bancshares | 0.45 | 7 per month | 1.33 | 0.05 | 3.79 | (2.53) | 8.90 | |
| FMNB | Farmers National Banc | (0.12) | 7 per month | 1.57 | (0.04) | 2.82 | (2.64) | 5.83 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alerus Financial
For every potential investor in Alerus, whether a beginner or expert, Alerus Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alerus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alerus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alerus Financial's price trends.Alerus Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alerus Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alerus Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alerus Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alerus Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alerus Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alerus Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alerus Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alerus Financial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 4141.51 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.69) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 24.16 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 23.99 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.92) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.84) |
Alerus Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alerus Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alerus Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alerus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9243 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Variance | 2.54 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.41 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8543 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.67) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alerus Financial
The number of cover stories for Alerus Financial depends on current market conditions and Alerus Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alerus Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alerus Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alerus Financial Short Properties
Alerus Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alerus Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alerus Financial Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alerus Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alerus Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 21.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 649.3 M |
Additional Tools for Alerus Stock Analysis
When running Alerus Financial's price analysis, check to measure Alerus Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alerus Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Alerus Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alerus Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alerus Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alerus Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.