Ardagh Metal Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| AMBP Stock | USD 4.41 0.03 0.68% |
Ardagh Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Ardagh Metal's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ardagh Metal's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ardagh Metal fundamentals over time.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Ardagh Metal's stock price is slightly above 63. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ardagh, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.75 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0127 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.1943 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.2435 | Wall Street Target Price 4.45 |
Using Ardagh Metal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ardagh Metal Packaging from the perspective of Ardagh Metal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ardagh Metal using Ardagh Metal's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ardagh using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ardagh Metal's stock price.
Ardagh Metal Short Interest
An investor who is long Ardagh Metal may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ardagh Metal and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ardagh Metal with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 3.868 | Short Percent 0.021 | Short Ratio 2.93 | Shares Short Prior Month 4 M | 50 Day MA 4.0282 |
Ardagh Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ardagh Metal Packaging on the next trading day is expected to be 4.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.19.Ardagh Metal Packaging Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ardagh Metal's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ardagh. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ardagh can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ardagh Metal Packaging. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ardagh Metal's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ardagh Metal.
Ardagh Metal Implied Volatility | 0.78 |
Ardagh Metal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ardagh Metal Packaging stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ardagh Metal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ardagh Metal stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ardagh Metal's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ardagh Metal Packaging on the next trading day is expected to be 4.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.19. Ardagh Metal after-hype prediction price | USD 4.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ardagh Metal to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Ardagh Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ardagh Metal's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ardagh Metal's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ardagh Metal stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ardagh Metal's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ardagh Metal's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ardagh Metal is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ardagh. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Ardagh Metal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ardagh price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ardagh using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ardagh charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ardagh Metal Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ardagh Metal Packaging on the next trading day is expected to be 4.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ardagh Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ardagh Metal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ardagh Metal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ardagh Metal | Ardagh Metal Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ardagh Metal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ardagh Metal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ardagh Metal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.64 and 6.25, respectively. We have considered Ardagh Metal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ardagh Metal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ardagh Metal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0174 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0532 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0136 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.1942 |
Predictive Modules for Ardagh Metal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ardagh Metal Packaging. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ardagh Metal After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ardagh Metal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ardagh Metal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ardagh Metal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ardagh Metal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ardagh Metal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ardagh Metal's historical news coverage. Ardagh Metal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.62 and 6.20, respectively. We have considered Ardagh Metal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ardagh Metal is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ardagh Metal Packaging is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ardagh Metal Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ardagh Metal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ardagh Metal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ardagh Metal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.42 | 1.81 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 5 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.41 | 4.41 | 0.00 |
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Ardagh Metal Hype Timeline
Ardagh Metal Packaging is presently traded for 4.41. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.17. Ardagh is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.42%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ardagh Metal is about 455.92%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.58. About 76.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.59. Ardagh Metal Packaging recorded a loss per share of 0.01. The entity last dividend was issued on the 3rd of November 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ardagh Metal to cross-verify your projections.Ardagh Metal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ardagh Metal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ardagh Metal's future price movements. Getting to know how Ardagh Metal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ardagh Metal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OI | O I Glass | (0.74) | 9 per month | 1.84 | 0.09 | 4.16 | (3.38) | 18.50 | |
| PHIN | PHINIA Inc | 0.18 | 19 per month | 1.12 | 0.20 | 3.13 | (2.48) | 6.35 | |
| EYE | National Vision Holdings | (0.08) | 20 per month | 2.34 | (0.0005) | 4.01 | (4.32) | 13.28 | |
| ADNT | Adient PLC | (0.08) | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.13 | (5.12) | 21.07 | |
| GT | Goodyear Tire Rubber | (0.05) | 9 per month | 1.35 | 0.15 | 6.02 | (2.47) | 11.63 | |
| UAA | Under Armour A | 0.38 | 9 per month | 2.23 | 0.11 | 4.98 | (4.11) | 13.53 | |
| TRS | TriMas | (0.03) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.27 | (3.19) | 8.40 | |
| GEF | Greif Bros | 0.69 | 12 per month | 1.17 | 0.16 | 2.61 | (2.01) | 5.52 | |
| SBET | Sharplink Gaming | 0.26 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.07 | (9.51) | 19.15 | |
| SAH | Sonic Automotive | 3.44 | 28 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.83 | (3.06) | 7.72 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ardagh Metal
For every potential investor in Ardagh, whether a beginner or expert, Ardagh Metal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ardagh Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ardagh. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ardagh Metal's price trends.Ardagh Metal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ardagh Metal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ardagh Metal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ardagh Metal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ardagh Metal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ardagh Metal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ardagh Metal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ardagh Metal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ardagh Metal Packaging entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ardagh Metal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ardagh Metal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ardagh Metal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ardagh stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Variance | 3.87 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.09 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.60) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ardagh Metal
The number of cover stories for Ardagh Metal depends on current market conditions and Ardagh Metal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ardagh Metal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ardagh Metal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ardagh Metal Short Properties
Ardagh Metal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ardagh Metal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ardagh Metal Packaging often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ardagh Metal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ardagh Metal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 597.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 602 M |
Additional Tools for Ardagh Stock Analysis
When running Ardagh Metal's price analysis, check to measure Ardagh Metal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ardagh Metal is operating at the current time. Most of Ardagh Metal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ardagh Metal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ardagh Metal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ardagh Metal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.