AMC Entertainment Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AMC Stock | USD 1.43 0.02 1.38% |
AMC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AMC Entertainment stock prices and determine the direction of AMC Entertainment Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AMC Entertainment's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of AMC Entertainment's share price is approaching 33. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling AMC Entertainment, making its price go up or down. Momentum 33
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (0.93) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.57) | Wall Street Target Price 2.31 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.21) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
Using AMC Entertainment hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AMC Entertainment Holdings from the perspective of AMC Entertainment response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AMC Entertainment using AMC Entertainment's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AMC using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AMC Entertainment's stock price.
AMC Entertainment Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in AMC Entertainment's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards AMC. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of AMC Entertainment stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 2.6717 | Short Percent 0.2191 | Short Ratio 3.38 | Shares Short Prior Month 50.4 M | 50 Day MA 1.894 |
AMC Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AMC Entertainment Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.30.AMC Entertainment Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AMC Entertainment's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AMC. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AMC can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AMC Entertainment Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AMC Entertainment's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AMC Entertainment.
AMC Entertainment Implied Volatility | 1.27 |
AMC Entertainment's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AMC Entertainment Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AMC Entertainment's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AMC Entertainment stock will not fluctuate a lot when AMC Entertainment's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AMC Entertainment Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.30. AMC Entertainment after-hype prediction price | USD 1.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AMC Entertainment to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AMC contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AMC Entertainment Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0794% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With AMC Entertainment trading at USD 1.43, that is roughly USD 0.001135 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating AMC Entertainment's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AMC Entertainment Holdings options at the current volatility level of 1.27%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 AMC Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast AMC Entertainment's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in AMC Entertainment's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for AMC Entertainment stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current AMC Entertainment's open interest, investors have to compare it to AMC Entertainment's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of AMC Entertainment is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in AMC. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
AMC Entertainment Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AMC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AMC using various technical indicators. When you analyze AMC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AMC Entertainment Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AMC Entertainment Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AMC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AMC Entertainment's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AMC Entertainment Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AMC Entertainment | AMC Entertainment Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AMC Entertainment Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AMC Entertainment's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AMC Entertainment's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.08, respectively. We have considered AMC Entertainment's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AMC Entertainment stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AMC Entertainment stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0095 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0559 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0288 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.3 |
Predictive Modules for AMC Entertainment
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMC Entertainment. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AMC Entertainment After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AMC Entertainment at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AMC Entertainment or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AMC Entertainment, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AMC Entertainment Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AMC Entertainment's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AMC Entertainment's historical news coverage. AMC Entertainment's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.07 and 5.08, respectively. We have considered AMC Entertainment's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AMC Entertainment is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AMC Entertainment is based on 3 months time horizon.
AMC Entertainment Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AMC Entertainment is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AMC Entertainment backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AMC Entertainment, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.92 | 3.66 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.43 | 1.43 | 0.00 |
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AMC Entertainment Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January AMC Entertainment is traded for 1.43. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. AMC is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.92%. %. The volatility of related hype on AMC Entertainment is about 11764.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.40. About 53.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.18. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. AMC Entertainment has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.42. The entity recorded a loss per share of 1.47. The firm last dividend was issued on the 6th of March 2020. AMC Entertainment had 1:10 split on the 24th of August 2023. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AMC Entertainment to cross-verify your projections.AMC Entertainment Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AMC Entertainment's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AMC Entertainment's future price movements. Getting to know how AMC Entertainment's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AMC Entertainment may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TV | Grupo Televisa SAB | 0.01 | 9 per month | 2.03 | 0.17 | 5.44 | (2.90) | 17.01 | |
| OPRA | Opera | (0.25) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.11 | (4.78) | 11.94 | |
| IDT | IDT Corporation | (0.63) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.30 | (2.49) | 6.84 | |
| SBGI | Sinclair Broadcast Group | (0.06) | 11 per month | 2.24 | 0.03 | 3.49 | (3.36) | 23.63 | |
| GIBO | Global IBO Group | 0.19 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 9.44 | (8.30) | 32.13 | |
| ZD | Ziff Davis | 1.14 | 9 per month | 2.12 | 0.0001 | 3.77 | (3.53) | 12.30 | |
| LILA | Liberty Latin America | (0.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.45 | (4.26) | 15.16 | |
| MOMO | Hello Group | (0.20) | 7 per month | 1.61 | (0.03) | 2.80 | (2.36) | 9.42 | |
| CRTO | Criteo Sa | (0.35) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.86 | (4.14) | 12.13 |
Other Forecasting Options for AMC Entertainment
For every potential investor in AMC, whether a beginner or expert, AMC Entertainment's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AMC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AMC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AMC Entertainment's price trends.AMC Entertainment Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AMC Entertainment stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AMC Entertainment could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AMC Entertainment by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AMC Entertainment Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AMC Entertainment stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AMC Entertainment shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AMC Entertainment stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AMC Entertainment Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.43 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.43 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 33.79 |
AMC Entertainment Risk Indicators
The analysis of AMC Entertainment's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AMC Entertainment's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.67 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.55 | |||
| Variance | 12.57 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AMC Entertainment
The number of cover stories for AMC Entertainment depends on current market conditions and AMC Entertainment's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AMC Entertainment is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AMC Entertainment's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AMC Entertainment Short Properties
AMC Entertainment's future price predictability will typically decrease when AMC Entertainment's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AMC Entertainment Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AMC Entertainment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AMC Entertainment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 332.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 632.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AMC Entertainment to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Will Movies & Entertainment sector continue expanding? Could AMC diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AMC Entertainment. If investors know AMC will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every AMC Entertainment data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
AMC Entertainment's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on AMC's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate AMC Entertainment's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since AMC Entertainment's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that AMC Entertainment's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether AMC Entertainment represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, AMC Entertainment's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.