Amentum Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AMTM Stock | 35.38 0.18 0.51% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amentum Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 35.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.92. Amentum Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Amentum Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Amentum Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Amentum Holdings fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Amentum Holdings' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5456 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.4 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.7487 | Wall Street Target Price 36.1818 |
Using Amentum Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amentum Holdings from the perspective of Amentum Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Amentum Holdings using Amentum Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Amentum using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Amentum Holdings' stock price.
Amentum Holdings Short Interest
An investor who is long Amentum Holdings may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Amentum Holdings and may potentially protect profits, hedge Amentum Holdings with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 24.4235 | Short Percent 0.046 | Short Ratio 3.43 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.6 M | 50 Day MA 29.0804 |
Amentum Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Amentum Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Amentum. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Amentum can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Amentum Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Amentum Holdings Implied Volatility | 0.69 |
Amentum Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Amentum Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Amentum Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Amentum Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Amentum Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amentum Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 35.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.92. Amentum Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 36.13 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amentum Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Amentum contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Amentum Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0431% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Amentum Holdings trading at USD 35.38, that is roughly USD 0.0153 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Amentum Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Amentum Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.69%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Amentum Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Amentum Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Amentum Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Amentum Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Amentum Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Amentum Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Amentum Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Amentum. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Amentum Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Amentum price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Amentum using various technical indicators. When you analyze Amentum charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Amentum Holdings Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Amentum Holdings' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 437 M | Current Value 385.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 87 M |
Amentum Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amentum Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 35.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79, mean absolute percentage error of 1.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amentum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amentum Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Amentum Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Amentum Holdings | Amentum Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Amentum Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Amentum Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amentum Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.94 and 39.37, respectively. We have considered Amentum Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amentum Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amentum Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.0416 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.789 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0302 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 48.9155 |
Predictive Modules for Amentum Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amentum Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amentum Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Amentum Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Amentum Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Amentum Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Amentum Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Amentum Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Amentum Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Amentum Holdings' historical news coverage. Amentum Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 32.42 and 39.84, respectively. We have considered Amentum Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Amentum Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amentum Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Amentum Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Amentum Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Amentum Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Amentum Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.81 | 3.71 | 0.75 | 0.06 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
35.38 | 36.13 | 2.12 |
|
Amentum Holdings Hype Timeline
Amentum Holdings is presently traded for 35.38. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.75, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Amentum is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 36.13 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 2.12%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.81%. The volatility of related hype on Amentum Holdings is about 4983.58%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 35.44. Amentum Holdings currently holds 42 M in liabilities. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amentum Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Amentum Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Amentum Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Amentum Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Amentum Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Amentum Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HXL | Hexcel | 0.05 | 11 per month | 1.42 | 0.18 | 2.82 | (2.67) | 16.08 | |
| RAL | Ralliant Common | (0.18) | 9 per month | 1.20 | 0.17 | 3.14 | (2.41) | 8.74 | |
| KBR | KBR Inc | 1.50 | 2 per month | 1.70 | (0.01) | 3.22 | (2.79) | 10.41 | |
| MRCY | Mercury Systems | 0.05 | 13 per month | 2.10 | 0.13 | 4.65 | (3.62) | 12.66 | |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc | (0.24) | 16 per month | 0.84 | 0.25 | 3.68 | (1.72) | 11.04 | |
| TKR | Timken Company | (2.50) | 10 per month | 1.11 | 0.16 | 3.38 | (2.13) | 8.44 | |
| SPR | Spirit Aerosystems Holdings | (0.69) | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.29 | (3.30) | 7.96 | |
| GATX | GATX Corporation | 1.18 | 11 per month | 1.31 | 0.02 | 1.96 | (1.90) | 5.75 | |
| FCN | FTI Consulting | 1.50 | 15 per month | 0.85 | 0.14 | 2.69 | (1.82) | 8.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for Amentum Holdings
For every potential investor in Amentum, whether a beginner or expert, Amentum Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amentum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amentum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amentum Holdings' price trends.Amentum Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amentum Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amentum Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amentum Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amentum Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amentum Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amentum Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amentum Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amentum Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 30575.66 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.19) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 35.53 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 35.48 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.24) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.18) |
Amentum Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amentum Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amentum Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amentum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.63 | |||
| Variance | 13.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.07 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.74 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Amentum Holdings
The number of cover stories for Amentum Holdings depends on current market conditions and Amentum Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Amentum Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Amentum Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Amentum Holdings Short Properties
Amentum Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Amentum Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Amentum Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Amentum Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amentum Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 244 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 437 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amentum Holdings to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Amentum Stock, please use our How to Invest in Amentum Holdings guide.You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Is Research & Consulting Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amentum Holdings. If investors know Amentum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amentum Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | Earnings Share 0.27 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.774 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Amentum Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amentum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amentum Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amentum Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amentum Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amentum Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amentum Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amentum Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amentum Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.