Amentum Holdings Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AMTM Stock | 30.48 1.48 5.10% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amentum Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 30.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.59. Amentum Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Amentum Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Amentum Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Amentum Holdings fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Amentum Holdings' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5456 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.4 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.7487 | Wall Street Target Price 33.7273 |
Using Amentum Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amentum Holdings from the perspective of Amentum Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Amentum Holdings using Amentum Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Amentum using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Amentum Holdings' stock price.
Amentum Holdings Short Interest
An investor who is long Amentum Holdings may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Amentum Holdings and may potentially protect profits, hedge Amentum Holdings with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 23.4334 | Short Percent 0.0457 | Short Ratio 2.06 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.5 M | 50 Day MA 26.1046 |
Amentum Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Amentum Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Amentum. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Amentum can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Amentum Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Amentum Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Amentum Holdings.
Amentum Holdings Implied Volatility | 0.61 |
Amentum Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Amentum Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Amentum Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Amentum Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Amentum Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amentum Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 30.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.59. Amentum Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 30.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amentum Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 Amentum Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Amentum Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Amentum Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Amentum Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Amentum Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Amentum Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Amentum Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Amentum. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Amentum Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Amentum price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Amentum using various technical indicators. When you analyze Amentum charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Amentum Holdings Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Amentum Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 30.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67, mean absolute percentage error of 1.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amentum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amentum Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Amentum Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Amentum Holdings | Amentum Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Amentum Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Amentum Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amentum Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.88 and 34.47, respectively. We have considered Amentum Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amentum Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amentum Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1677 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.671 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0259 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.5912 |
Predictive Modules for Amentum Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amentum Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amentum Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Amentum Holdings
For every potential investor in Amentum, whether a beginner or expert, Amentum Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amentum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amentum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amentum Holdings' price trends.Amentum Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amentum Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amentum Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amentum Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amentum Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amentum Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amentum Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Amentum Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amentum Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amentum Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amentum Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amentum Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Amentum Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amentum Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amentum Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amentum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.77 | |||
| Variance | 14.22 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.26 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.28) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ProphetCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amentum Holdings to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Amentum Stock, please use our How to Invest in Amentum Holdings guide.You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Is Research & Consulting Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amentum Holdings. If investors know Amentum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amentum Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | Earnings Share 0.27 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.774 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Amentum Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amentum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amentum Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amentum Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amentum Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amentum Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amentum Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amentum Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amentum Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.