Smith AO Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| AOS Stock | USD 72.46 0.63 0.86% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Smith AO on the next trading day is expected to be 72.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.82 and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.61. Smith Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Smith AO's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.146 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.9139 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.7955 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.0341 | Wall Street Target Price 78.2727 |
Using Smith AO hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Smith AO from the perspective of Smith AO response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Smith AO using Smith AO's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Smith using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Smith AO's stock price.
Smith AO Short Interest
An investor who is long Smith AO may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Smith AO and may potentially protect profits, hedge Smith AO with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 68.3884 | Short Percent 0.0446 | Short Ratio 4.22 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.3 M | 50 Day MA 67.6982 |
Smith AO Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Smith AO's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Smith. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Smith can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Smith AO. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Smith AO Implied Volatility | 0.38 |
Smith AO's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Smith AO stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Smith AO's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Smith AO stock will not fluctuate a lot when Smith AO's options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Smith AO on the next trading day is expected to be 72.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.82 and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.61. Smith AO after-hype prediction price | USD 72.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith AO to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Smith contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Smith AO will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0238% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Smith AO trading at USD 72.46, that is roughly USD 0.0172 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Smith AO's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Smith AO options at the current volatility level of 0.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Smith Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Smith AO's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Smith AO's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Smith AO stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Smith AO's open interest, investors have to compare it to Smith AO's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Smith AO is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Smith. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Smith AO Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Smith price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Smith using various technical indicators. When you analyze Smith charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Smith AO Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Smith AO on the next trading day is expected to be 72.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.82, mean absolute percentage error of 1.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Smith Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Smith AO's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Smith AO Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Smith AO | Smith AO Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Smith AO Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Smith AO's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Smith AO's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 71.25 and 74.03, respectively. We have considered Smith AO's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Smith AO stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Smith AO stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.0453 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8163 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0122 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 50.6112 |
Predictive Modules for Smith AO
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smith AO. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Smith AO After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Smith AO at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Smith AO or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Smith AO, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Smith AO Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Smith AO's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Smith AO's historical news coverage. Smith AO's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 71.04 and 73.82, respectively. We have considered Smith AO's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Smith AO is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Smith AO is based on 3 months time horizon.
Smith AO Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Smith AO is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Smith AO backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Smith AO, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.39 | 0.03 | 0.23 | 6 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
72.46 | 72.43 | 0.04 |
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Smith AO Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January Smith AO is traded for 72.46. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.23. Smith is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 72.43. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Smith AO is about 65.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 72.69. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.75. Smith AO last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2026. The entity had 2:1 split on the 6th of October 2016. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith AO to cross-verify your projections.Smith AO Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Smith AO's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Smith AO's future price movements. Getting to know how Smith AO's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Smith AO may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WTS | Watts Water Technologies | 2.88 | 9 per month | 1.35 | 0.02 | 2.75 | (1.61) | 9.37 | |
| FLS | Flowserve | (0.24) | 3 per month | 0.92 | 0.16 | 2.55 | (2.33) | 34.18 | |
| DCI | Donaldson | 1.58 | 9 per month | 0.80 | 0.15 | 2.27 | (1.74) | 9.29 | |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings | 4.53 | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.15 | (5.41) | 11.59 | |
| RRX | Regal Beloit | 8.47 | 8 per month | 2.20 | 0.03 | 4.19 | (3.90) | 11.58 | |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 1.56 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.03 | (2.65) | 6.97 | |
| SPXC | SPX Corp | (0.24) | 19 per month | 1.77 | 0.06 | 3.71 | (3.22) | 17.00 | |
| PSN | Parsons Corp | 3.12 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.68 | (3.89) | 25.78 | |
| AIT | Applied Industrial Technologies | (0.24) | 3 per month | 1.01 | 0.08 | 2.70 | (1.73) | 7.04 | |
| GTLS | Chart Industries | (0.24) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 0.23 | (0.12) | 1.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for Smith AO
For every potential investor in Smith, whether a beginner or expert, Smith AO's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Smith Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Smith. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Smith AO's price trends.Smith AO Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Smith AO stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Smith AO could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Smith AO by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Smith AO Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Smith AO stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Smith AO shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Smith AO stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Smith AO entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 11457.03 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.52) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 72.58 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 72.54 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.44) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.63) |
Smith AO Risk Indicators
The analysis of Smith AO's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Smith AO's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting smith stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Variance | 2.1 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.0 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.8 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.11) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Smith AO
The number of cover stories for Smith AO depends on current market conditions and Smith AO's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Smith AO is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Smith AO's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Smith AO Short Properties
Smith AO's future price predictability will typically decrease when Smith AO's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Smith AO often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Smith AO's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Smith AO's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 147.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 276.1 M |
Additional Tools for Smith Stock Analysis
When running Smith AO's price analysis, check to measure Smith AO's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Smith AO is operating at the current time. Most of Smith AO's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Smith AO's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Smith AO's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Smith AO to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.