Apollo Commercial Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ARI Stock | USD 10.97 0.29 2.72% |
Apollo Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Apollo Commercial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The RSI of Apollo Commercial's share price is above 70 as of 29th of January 2026. This suggests that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Apollo, making its price go up or down. Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.47) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1441 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.9593 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.9063 | Wall Street Target Price 11.25 |
Using Apollo Commercial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Apollo Commercial Real from the perspective of Apollo Commercial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Apollo Commercial using Apollo Commercial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Apollo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Apollo Commercial's stock price.
Apollo Commercial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Apollo Commercial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Apollo. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Apollo Commercial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 9.9214 | Short Percent 0.035 | Short Ratio 3.14 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.2 M | 50 Day MA 9.9862 |
Apollo Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Apollo Commercial Real on the next trading day is expected to be 10.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.73.Apollo Commercial Real Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Apollo Commercial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Apollo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Apollo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Apollo Commercial Real. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Apollo Commercial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Apollo Commercial.
Apollo Commercial Implied Volatility | 1.23 |
Apollo Commercial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Apollo Commercial Real stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Apollo Commercial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Apollo Commercial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Apollo Commercial's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Apollo Commercial Real on the next trading day is expected to be 10.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.73. Apollo Commercial after-hype prediction price | USD 10.66 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apollo Commercial to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Apollo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Apollo Commercial Real will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0769% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Apollo Commercial trading at USD 10.97, that is roughly USD 0.008433 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Apollo Commercial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Apollo Commercial Real options at the current volatility level of 1.23%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Apollo Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Apollo Commercial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Apollo Commercial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Apollo Commercial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Apollo Commercial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Apollo Commercial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Apollo Commercial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Apollo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Apollo Commercial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Apollo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Apollo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Apollo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Apollo Commercial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Apollo Commercial Real on the next trading day is expected to be 10.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.73.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Apollo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Apollo Commercial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Apollo Commercial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Apollo Commercial | Apollo Commercial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Apollo Commercial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Apollo Commercial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Apollo Commercial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.69 and 12.25, respectively. We have considered Apollo Commercial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Apollo Commercial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Apollo Commercial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.2445 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0238 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0955 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0096 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.73 |
Predictive Modules for Apollo Commercial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Apollo Commercial Real. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Apollo Commercial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Apollo Commercial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Apollo Commercial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Apollo Commercial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Apollo Commercial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Apollo Commercial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Apollo Commercial's historical news coverage. Apollo Commercial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.38 and 11.94, respectively. We have considered Apollo Commercial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Apollo Commercial is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Apollo Commercial Real is based on 3 months time horizon.
Apollo Commercial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Apollo Commercial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Apollo Commercial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Apollo Commercial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.28 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.97 | 10.66 | 0.19 |
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Apollo Commercial Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Apollo Commercial Real is traded for 10.97. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Apollo is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 10.66. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Apollo Commercial is about 442.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.92. About 69.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.76. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Apollo Commercial Real last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. The entity had 1:15 split on the December 7, 2009. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apollo Commercial to cross-verify your projections.Apollo Commercial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Apollo Commercial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Apollo Commercial's future price movements. Getting to know how Apollo Commercial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Apollo Commercial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LADR | Ladder Capital Corp | 0.03 | 10 per month | 1.02 | (0.03) | 1.74 | (1.54) | 4.94 | |
| KREF | KKR Real Estate | 0.07 | 10 per month | 1.60 | (0.04) | 2.66 | (2.77) | 6.97 | |
| EFC | Ellington Financial | (0.04) | 9 per month | 1.08 | (0.03) | 1.27 | (1.61) | 8.52 | |
| TRTX | TPG RE Finance | (0.01) | 7 per month | 1.10 | 0.03 | 1.54 | (1.65) | 6.00 | |
| IIPR | Innovative Industrial Properties | (3.01) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.46 | (3.84) | 14.66 | |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT | (0.15) | 9 per month | 0.88 | 0.17 | 2.17 | (1.61) | 6.26 | |
| CIM | Chimera Investment | 0.07 | 7 per month | 2.00 | (0.01) | 2.51 | (1.93) | 10.83 | |
| DX | Dynex Capital | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.45 | 0.16 | 1.89 | (1.08) | 3.57 | |
| PMT | PennyMac Mortgage Investment | 0.15 | 11 per month | 1.07 | 0.07 | 2.42 | (2.21) | 6.97 | |
| MFA | MFA Financial | 0.04 | 8 per month | 0.77 | 0.11 | 2.36 | (1.38) | 6.46 |
Other Forecasting Options for Apollo Commercial
For every potential investor in Apollo, whether a beginner or expert, Apollo Commercial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Apollo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Apollo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Apollo Commercial's price trends.Apollo Commercial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Apollo Commercial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Apollo Commercial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Apollo Commercial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Apollo Commercial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Apollo Commercial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Apollo Commercial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Apollo Commercial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Apollo Commercial Real entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Apollo Commercial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Apollo Commercial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Apollo Commercial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting apollo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9195 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9212 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Variance | 1.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8486 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Apollo Commercial
The number of cover stories for Apollo Commercial depends on current market conditions and Apollo Commercial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Apollo Commercial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Apollo Commercial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Apollo Commercial Short Properties
Apollo Commercial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Apollo Commercial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Apollo Commercial Real often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Apollo Commercial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Apollo Commercial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 139.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 317.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apollo Commercial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Is there potential for Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) market expansion? Will Apollo introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Apollo Commercial. If investors know Apollo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Apollo Commercial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.47) | Dividend Share 1 | Earnings Share 0.88 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
Understanding Apollo Commercial Real requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Apollo's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Apollo Commercial's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Apollo Commercial's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Apollo Commercial's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Apollo Commercial represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Apollo Commercial's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.