Astrana Health Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ASTH Stock | 29.38 2.17 7.98% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Astrana Health on the next trading day is expected to be 27.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.99. Astrana Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Astrana Health's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Astrana |
Astrana Health Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Astrana Health's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2001-09-30 | Previous Quarter 348 M | Current Value 288.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 107.5 M |
Astrana Health Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Astrana Health on the next trading day is expected to be 27.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.31, mean absolute percentage error of 2.97, and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Astrana Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Astrana Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Astrana Health Stock Forecast Pattern
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Astrana Health Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Astrana Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Astrana Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.62 and 31.47, respectively. We have considered Astrana Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Astrana Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Astrana Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.1998 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3113 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0396 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 79.9912 |
Predictive Modules for Astrana Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astrana Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Astrana Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Astrana Health
For every potential investor in Astrana, whether a beginner or expert, Astrana Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Astrana Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Astrana. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Astrana Health's price trends.Astrana Health Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Astrana Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Astrana Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Astrana Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Astrana Health Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Astrana Health's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Astrana Health's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Astrana Health Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Astrana Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Astrana Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Astrana Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Astrana Health entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Astrana Health Risk Indicators
The analysis of Astrana Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Astrana Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting astrana stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.17 | |||
| Variance | 17.4 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether Astrana Health offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Astrana Health's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Astrana Health Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Astrana Health Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astrana Health to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Astrana Stock please use our How to Invest in Astrana Health guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Astrana Health. If investors know Astrana will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Astrana Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.30) | Earnings Share 0.9 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.884 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Astrana Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Astrana that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Astrana Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Astrana Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Astrana Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Astrana Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Astrana Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Astrana Health is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Astrana Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.