American Vanguard Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AVD Stock | USD 6.13 0.06 0.97% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Vanguard on the next trading day is expected to be 6.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.17. American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Vanguard stock prices and determine the direction of American Vanguard's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Vanguard's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
American |
American Vanguard Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the American Vanguard's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1986-12-31 | Previous Quarter 17.9 M | Current Value 11.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 8.1 M |
American Vanguard Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Vanguard on the next trading day is expected to be 6.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Vanguard's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Vanguard Stock Forecast Pattern
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American Vanguard Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Vanguard's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Vanguard's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.89 and 9.12, respectively. We have considered American Vanguard's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Vanguard stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Vanguard stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.35 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1176 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0208 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.1724 |
Predictive Modules for American Vanguard
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Vanguard. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Vanguard's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for American Vanguard
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Vanguard's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Vanguard's price trends.American Vanguard Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Vanguard stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Vanguard could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Vanguard by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Vanguard Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Vanguard's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Vanguard's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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American Vanguard Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Vanguard stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Vanguard shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Vanguard stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Vanguard entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
American Vanguard Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Vanguard's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Vanguard's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.63 | |||
| Variance | 6.91 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.74 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.53 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.96) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether American Vanguard is a strong investment it is important to analyze American Vanguard's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American Vanguard's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Vanguard to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade American Stock refer to our How to Trade American Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Vanguard. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Vanguard listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | Dividend Share 0.03 | Earnings Share (1.04) | Revenue Per Share 19.807 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.21) |
The market value of American Vanguard is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Vanguard's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Vanguard's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Vanguard's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Vanguard's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Vanguard's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Vanguard is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Vanguard's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.