American Vanguard Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| AVD Stock | USD 5.08 0.06 1.20% |
American Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Vanguard stock prices and determine the direction of American Vanguard's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of American Vanguard's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of American Vanguard's stock price is about 63. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling American, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.28 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.13) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.38 | Wall Street Target Price 12 |
Using American Vanguard hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Vanguard from the perspective of American Vanguard response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Vanguard using American Vanguard's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Vanguard's stock price.
American Vanguard Implied Volatility | 1.33 |
American Vanguard's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Vanguard stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Vanguard's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Vanguard stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Vanguard's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of American Vanguard on the next trading day is expected to be 4.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.67. American Vanguard after-hype prediction price | USD 5.08 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Vanguard to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 American Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast American Vanguard's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in American Vanguard's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for American Vanguard stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current American Vanguard's open interest, investors have to compare it to American Vanguard's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of American Vanguard is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in American. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
American Vanguard Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Vanguard Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of American Vanguard on the next trading day is expected to be 4.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Vanguard's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Vanguard Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Vanguard | American Vanguard Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
American Vanguard Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Vanguard's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Vanguard's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.06 and 7.35, respectively. We have considered American Vanguard's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Vanguard stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Vanguard stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4288 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3716 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0848 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.6674 |
Predictive Modules for American Vanguard
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Vanguard. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Vanguard's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Vanguard After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Vanguard at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Vanguard or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Vanguard, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Vanguard Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Vanguard's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Vanguard's historical news coverage. American Vanguard's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.94 and 8.22, respectively. We have considered American Vanguard's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Vanguard is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Vanguard is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Vanguard Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Vanguard is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Vanguard backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Vanguard, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 3.14 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.08 | 5.08 | 0.00 |
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American Vanguard Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February American Vanguard is traded for 5.08. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. American is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on American Vanguard is about 78500.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.08. About 69.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.65. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. American Vanguard has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.27. The entity recorded a loss per share of 4.03. The firm last dividend was issued on the 26th of June 2024. American Vanguard had 4:3 split on the 18th of April 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Vanguard to cross-verify your projections.American Vanguard Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Vanguard's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Vanguard's future price movements. Getting to know how American Vanguard's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Vanguard may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BIOX | Bioceres Crop Solutions | (0.11) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 8.13 | (8.92) | 32.18 | |
| LVRO | Lavoro Limited Class | 0.01 | 8 per month | 6.29 | 0.03 | 12.33 | (13.33) | 160.48 | |
| MERC | Mercer International | 0.01 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.93 | (8.93) | 22.62 | |
| AEC | Anfield Energy | (0.12) | 18 per month | 5.23 | 0.05 | 11.26 | (8.78) | 26.21 | |
| BHST | BioHarvest Sciences Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 9.49 | (8.30) | 22.97 | |
| FEAM | 5E Advanced Materials | 0.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 8.39 | (9.72) | 42.14 | |
| FURY | Fury Gold Mines | 0.01 | 9 per month | 4.34 | 0.09 | 9.72 | (6.49) | 27.18 | |
| USGO | US GoldMining Common | 0.01 | 8 per month | 3.65 | 0.04 | 9.48 | (6.74) | 19.03 | |
| ACNT | Synalloy | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.91 | 0.21 | 4.58 | (2.17) | 10.64 | |
| NVA | Nova Minerals Limited | 0.01 | 13 per month | 11.52 | (0) | 11.97 | (17.69) | 47.37 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Vanguard
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Vanguard's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Vanguard's price trends.American Vanguard Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Vanguard stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Vanguard could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Vanguard by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Vanguard Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Vanguard stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Vanguard shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Vanguard stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Vanguard entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
American Vanguard Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Vanguard's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Vanguard's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.25 | |||
| Variance | 10.56 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.88 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Vanguard
The number of cover stories for American Vanguard depends on current market conditions and American Vanguard's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Vanguard is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Vanguard's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Vanguard Short Properties
American Vanguard's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Vanguard's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Vanguard often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Vanguard's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Vanguard's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 28.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Vanguard to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade American Stock refer to our How to Trade American Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Will Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals sector continue expanding? Could American diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Vanguard. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every American Vanguard data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | Earnings Share (4.03) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.009 | Return On Assets |
Understanding American Vanguard requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects American's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what American Vanguard's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push American Vanguard's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that American Vanguard's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether American Vanguard represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, American Vanguard's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.