Bilibili Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BILI Stock | USD 35.92 1.24 3.58% |
Bilibili Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bilibili's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Bilibili's stock price is under 68 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 28th of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Bilibili, making its price go up or down. Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Bilibili hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bilibili from the perspective of Bilibili response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bilibili on the next trading day is expected to be 35.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.09. Bilibili after-hype prediction price | USD 35.92 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bilibili to cross-verify your projections. Bilibili Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bilibili price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bilibili using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bilibili charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bilibili Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bilibili on the next trading day is expected to be 35.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.60, mean absolute percentage error of 0.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.09.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bilibili Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bilibili's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bilibili Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bilibili | Bilibili Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bilibili Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bilibili's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bilibili's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.89 and 38.95, respectively. We have considered Bilibili's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bilibili stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bilibili stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9917 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0922 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6015 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0212 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.09 |
Predictive Modules for Bilibili
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bilibili. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bilibili After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bilibili at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bilibili or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bilibili, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bilibili Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bilibili's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bilibili's historical news coverage. Bilibili's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 32.89 and 38.95, respectively. We have considered Bilibili's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bilibili is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bilibili is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bilibili Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bilibili is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bilibili backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bilibili, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 3.03 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
35.92 | 35.92 | 0.00 |
|
Bilibili Hype Timeline
Bilibili is currently traded for 35.92. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.35. Bilibili is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.32%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bilibili is about 274.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 35.57. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bilibili to cross-verify your projections.Bilibili Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bilibili's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bilibili's future price movements. Getting to know how Bilibili's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bilibili may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SNX | Synnex | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.78 | (0.01) | 2.47 | (3.19) | 7.59 | |
| RGTI | Rigetti Computing | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 9.05 | (10.07) | 24.38 | |
| CACI | CACI International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.08 | 0.09 | 3.62 | (2.10) | 8.74 | |
| DUOL | Duolingo | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 4.69 | (5.57) | 28.47 | |
| SAIL | SailPoint Common Stock | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.80 | (5.57) | 12.06 | |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings | (2.33) | 4 per month | 5.30 | 0.18 | 11.31 | (10.62) | 36.83 | |
| QXO | QXO Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.42 | 0.11 | 5.47 | (3.35) | 22.99 | |
| ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | (2.33) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.83 | (3.78) | 10.47 | |
| ENTG | Entegris | (3.18) | 26 per month | 2.49 | 0.15 | 6.74 | (3.59) | 12.30 | |
| RMBS | Rambus Inc | (3.18) | 7 per month | 3.99 | 0.06 | 7.54 | (5.52) | 21.96 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bilibili
For every potential investor in Bilibili, whether a beginner or expert, Bilibili's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bilibili Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bilibili. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bilibili's price trends.Bilibili Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bilibili stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bilibili could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bilibili by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bilibili Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bilibili stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bilibili shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bilibili stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bilibili entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 82275.44 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.148148 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.04 | |||
| Day Median Price | 35.86 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 35.88 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.68 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.24 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 68.46 |
Bilibili Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bilibili's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bilibili's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bilibili stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.03 | |||
| Variance | 9.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.4 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bilibili
The number of cover stories for Bilibili depends on current market conditions and Bilibili's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bilibili is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bilibili's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Bilibili Short Properties
Bilibili's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bilibili's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bilibili often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bilibili's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bilibili's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 416.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 16.7 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bilibili to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Bilibili Stock please use our How to Invest in Bilibili guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is there potential for Stock market expansion? Will Bilibili introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bilibili. Projected growth potential of Bilibili fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Bilibili listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Bilibili is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bilibili that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bilibili's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bilibili's true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because Bilibili's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bilibili's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Bilibili's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Bilibili should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Bilibili's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.