Bilibili Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| BILI Stock | USD 35.06 0.86 2.39% |
Bilibili Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bilibili's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Bilibili's stock price is under 65 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 29th of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Bilibili, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.8257 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.7629 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.91 | Wall Street Target Price 31.1967 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.4958 |
Using Bilibili hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bilibili from the perspective of Bilibili response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Bilibili using Bilibili's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Bilibili using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Bilibili's stock price.
Bilibili Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Bilibili's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Bilibili. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Bilibili stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 24.0101 | Short Percent 0.0572 | Short Ratio 6.1 | Shares Short Prior Month 14.5 M | 50 Day MA 27.2366 |
Bilibili Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Bilibili on the next trading day is expected to be 35.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.97.Bilibili Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Bilibili's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Bilibili. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Bilibili can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Bilibili. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Bilibili's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Bilibili.
Bilibili Implied Volatility | 0.68 |
Bilibili's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Bilibili stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Bilibili's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Bilibili stock will not fluctuate a lot when Bilibili's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Bilibili on the next trading day is expected to be 35.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.97. Bilibili after-hype prediction price | USD 35.98 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bilibili to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Bilibili contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Bilibili will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0425% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Bilibili trading at USD 35.06, that is roughly USD 0.0149 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Bilibili's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Bilibili options at the current volatility level of 0.68%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Bilibili Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Bilibili's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Bilibili's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Bilibili stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Bilibili's open interest, investors have to compare it to Bilibili's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Bilibili is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Bilibili. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Bilibili Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bilibili price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bilibili using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bilibili charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bilibili Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Bilibili on the next trading day is expected to be 35.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75, mean absolute percentage error of 1.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bilibili Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bilibili's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bilibili Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bilibili | Bilibili Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bilibili Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bilibili's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bilibili's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.43 and 38.55, respectively. We have considered Bilibili's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bilibili stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bilibili stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4739 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1306 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7452 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0261 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 43.965 |
Predictive Modules for Bilibili
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bilibili. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bilibili After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bilibili at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bilibili or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bilibili, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bilibili Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bilibili's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bilibili's historical news coverage. Bilibili's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 32.92 and 39.04, respectively. We have considered Bilibili's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bilibili is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bilibili is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bilibili Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bilibili is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bilibili backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bilibili, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 3.06 | 0.13 | 0.69 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
35.06 | 35.98 | 0.17 |
|
Bilibili Hype Timeline
Bilibili is currently traded for 35.06. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.69. Bilibili is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 35.98 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.17%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.33%. The volatility of related hype on Bilibili is about 146.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 34.37. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 26.83 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.35 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 10.82 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bilibili to cross-verify your projections.Bilibili Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bilibili's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bilibili's future price movements. Getting to know how Bilibili's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bilibili may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SNX | Synnex | 0.28 | 9 per month | 1.69 | (0) | 2.47 | (3.19) | 7.59 | |
| RGTI | Rigetti Computing | 0.49 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 9.05 | (10.07) | 24.38 | |
| CACI | CACI International | 4.02 | 9 per month | 1.13 | 0.04 | 3.62 | (2.10) | 8.74 | |
| DUOL | Duolingo | (9.22) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 4.69 | (5.75) | 28.47 | |
| SAIL | SailPoint Common Stock | 0.34 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.80 | (5.57) | 12.06 | |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings | (24.33) | 9 per month | 5.32 | 0.21 | 11.31 | (10.62) | 36.83 | |
| QXO | QXO Inc | 0.52 | 11 per month | 2.43 | 0.09 | 5.47 | (3.95) | 22.99 | |
| ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | 1.78 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 2.83 | (4.13) | 12.24 | |
| ENTG | Entegris | 0.08 | 10 per month | 2.79 | 0.12 | 6.74 | (4.46) | 12.30 | |
| RMBS | Rambus Inc | 5.14 | 10 per month | 4.19 | 0.07 | 7.77 | (7.58) | 21.96 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bilibili
For every potential investor in Bilibili, whether a beginner or expert, Bilibili's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bilibili Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bilibili. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bilibili's price trends.Bilibili Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bilibili stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bilibili could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bilibili by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bilibili Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bilibili stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bilibili shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bilibili stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bilibili entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 35.06 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 35.06 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.43) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.86) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 65.03 |
Bilibili Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bilibili's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bilibili's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bilibili stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.07 | |||
| Variance | 9.42 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.01 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.86 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.81) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bilibili
The number of cover stories for Bilibili depends on current market conditions and Bilibili's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bilibili is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bilibili's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Bilibili Short Properties
Bilibili's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bilibili's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bilibili often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bilibili's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bilibili's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 416.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 16.7 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bilibili to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Bilibili Stock please use our How to Invest in Bilibili guide.You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Is there potential for Interactive Home Entertainment market expansion? Will Bilibili introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bilibili. Projected growth potential of Bilibili fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Bilibili listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 0.26 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.052 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Bilibili is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bilibili that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bilibili's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bilibili's true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because Bilibili's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bilibili's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Bilibili's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Bilibili should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Bilibili's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.