Foreign Trade Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BLX Stock | USD 47.61 0.04 0.08% |
Foreign Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength indicator of Foreign Trade's stock price is slightly above 65 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Foreign, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.025 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.2 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.67 | Wall Street Target Price 55.5 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.031 |
Using Foreign Trade hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Foreign Trade Bank from the perspective of Foreign Trade response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Foreign Trade using Foreign Trade's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Foreign using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Foreign Trade's stock price.
Foreign Trade Short Interest
An investor who is long Foreign Trade may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Foreign Trade and may potentially protect profits, hedge Foreign Trade with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 41.6028 | Short Percent 0.0061 | Short Ratio 1.08 | Shares Short Prior Month 136 K | 50 Day MA 45.4756 |
Foreign Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Foreign Trade Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 47.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.16.Foreign Trade Bank Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Foreign Trade's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Foreign. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Foreign can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Foreign Trade Bank. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Foreign Trade's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Foreign Trade.
Foreign Trade Implied Volatility | 0.85 |
Foreign Trade's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Foreign Trade Bank stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Foreign Trade's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Foreign Trade stock will not fluctuate a lot when Foreign Trade's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Foreign Trade Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 47.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.16. Foreign Trade after-hype prediction price | USD 47.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Foreign Trade to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Foreign contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Foreign Trade Bank will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0531% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Foreign Trade trading at USD 47.61, that is roughly USD 0.0253 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Foreign Trade's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Foreign Trade Bank options at the current volatility level of 0.85%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Foreign Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Foreign Trade's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Foreign Trade's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Foreign Trade stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Foreign Trade's open interest, investors have to compare it to Foreign Trade's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Foreign Trade is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Foreign. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Foreign Trade Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Foreign price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Foreign using various technical indicators. When you analyze Foreign charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Foreign Trade Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Foreign Trade Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 47.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Foreign Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Foreign Trade's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Foreign Trade Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Foreign Trade | Foreign Trade Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Foreign Trade Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Foreign Trade's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Foreign Trade's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 46.42 and 48.80, respectively. We have considered Foreign Trade's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Foreign Trade stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Foreign Trade stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0307 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0867 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.386 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0086 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.16 |
Predictive Modules for Foreign Trade
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Foreign Trade Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Foreign Trade After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Foreign Trade at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Foreign Trade or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Foreign Trade, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Foreign Trade Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Foreign Trade's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Foreign Trade's historical news coverage. Foreign Trade's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 46.44 and 48.82, respectively. We have considered Foreign Trade's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Foreign Trade is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Foreign Trade Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.
Foreign Trade Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Foreign Trade is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Foreign Trade backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Foreign Trade, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.19 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
47.61 | 47.63 | 0.04 |
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Foreign Trade Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Foreign Trade Bank is traded for 47.61. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.12. Foreign is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 47.63 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Foreign Trade is about 191.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 47.73. The company reported the last year's revenue of 810.6 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 205.87 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 302.94 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Foreign Trade to cross-verify your projections.Foreign Trade Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Foreign Trade's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Foreign Trade's future price movements. Getting to know how Foreign Trade's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Foreign Trade may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FCF | First Commonwealth Financial | 0.46 | 8 per month | 1.31 | 0.05 | 2.92 | (1.48) | 8.12 | |
| FRME | First Merchants | (0.23) | 8 per month | 1.26 | 0.01 | 2.33 | (1.59) | 8.32 | |
| MBIN | Merchants Bancorp | 0.32 | 8 per month | 1.73 | 0.04 | 3.89 | (2.97) | 8.63 | |
| OFG | OFG Bancorp | 1.38 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.02 | (2.00) | 12.38 | |
| SRCE | 1st Source | (0.03) | 7 per month | 1.04 | 0.07 | 2.95 | (2.38) | 6.47 | |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp | (0.22) | 8 per month | 0.73 | 0.14 | 2.67 | (1.75) | 8.20 | |
| CHCO | City Holding | 0.85 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.91 | (1.54) | 6.66 | |
| CCB | Coastal Financial Corp | 0.19 | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.33 | (4.67) | 10.11 | |
| NWBI | Northwest Bancshares | 1.96 | 39 per month | 1.29 | 0.01 | 3.66 | (2.50) | 7.37 | |
| STBA | ST Bancorp | 1.53 | 7 per month | 1.38 | 0.1 | 2.62 | (2.81) | 9.17 |
Other Forecasting Options for Foreign Trade
For every potential investor in Foreign, whether a beginner or expert, Foreign Trade's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Foreign Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Foreign. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Foreign Trade's price trends.Foreign Trade Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Foreign Trade stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Foreign Trade could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Foreign Trade by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Foreign Trade Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Foreign Trade stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Foreign Trade shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Foreign Trade stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Foreign Trade Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 47.61 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 47.61 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 65.25 |
Foreign Trade Risk Indicators
The analysis of Foreign Trade's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Foreign Trade's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting foreign stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9306 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Variance | 1.9 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.26 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.88 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Foreign Trade
The number of cover stories for Foreign Trade depends on current market conditions and Foreign Trade's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Foreign Trade is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Foreign Trade's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Foreign Trade Short Properties
Foreign Trade's future price predictability will typically decrease when Foreign Trade's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Foreign Trade Bank often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Foreign Trade's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Foreign Trade's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.1 B |
Additional Tools for Foreign Stock Analysis
When running Foreign Trade's price analysis, check to measure Foreign Trade's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Foreign Trade is operating at the current time. Most of Foreign Trade's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Foreign Trade's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Foreign Trade's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Foreign Trade to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.