Bogota Financial Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| BSBK Stock | USD 8.50 0.10 1.16% |
Bogota Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Bogota Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Bogota Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Bogota Financial fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Bogota Financial's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.45) | Wall Street Target Price 12 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.429 |
Using Bogota Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bogota Financial Corp from the perspective of Bogota Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Bogota Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 8.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.40. Bogota Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 8.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bogota Financial to cross-verify your projections. Bogota Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bogota price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bogota using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bogota charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bogota Financial Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Bogota Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 8.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bogota Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bogota Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bogota Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bogota Financial | Bogota Financial Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Bogota Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bogota Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bogota Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.30 and 9.71, respectively. We have considered Bogota Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bogota Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bogota Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8902 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1032 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0123 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.3974 |
Predictive Modules for Bogota Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bogota Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bogota Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bogota Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bogota Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bogota Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bogota Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bogota Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bogota Financial's historical news coverage. Bogota Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.30 and 9.70, respectively. We have considered Bogota Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bogota Financial is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bogota Financial Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bogota Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bogota Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bogota Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bogota Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.21 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.50 | 8.50 | 0.00 |
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Bogota Financial Hype Timeline
Bogota Financial Corp is currently traded for 8.50. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Bogota is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bogota Financial is about 196.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.51. About 68.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.79. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Bogota Financial Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bogota Financial to cross-verify your projections.Bogota Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bogota Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bogota Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Bogota Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bogota Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UNB | Union Bankshares | 0.46 | 8 per month | 1.66 | 0.07 | 2.71 | (2.54) | 11.80 | |
| SFBC | Sound Financial Bancorp | 0.03 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.00 | (1.02) | 6.34 | |
| MGYR | Magyar Bancorp | (0.09) | 8 per month | 1.07 | 0.02 | 1.81 | (2.09) | 6.78 | |
| RVSB | Riverview Bancorp | (0.03) | 9 per month | 1.49 | 0.02 | 3.57 | (2.50) | 9.27 | |
| SRBK | SR Bancorp Common | 0.24 | 10 per month | 1.02 | 0.14 | 2.84 | (1.36) | 8.56 | |
| AFBI | Affinity Bancshares | 0.17 | 7 per month | 1.26 | 0.05 | 2.12 | (2.06) | 13.88 | |
| RBKB | Rhinebeck Bancorp | 5.43 | 6 per month | 1.03 | 0.16 | 3.65 | (2.18) | 9.17 | |
| FGBI | First Guaranty Bancshares | (0.04) | 8 per month | 3.55 | 0.11 | 8.86 | (6.85) | 23.91 | |
| PROV | Provident Financial Holdings | 0.19 | 9 per month | 0.75 | (0) | 1.34 | (1.04) | 4.66 | |
| LSBK | Lake Shore Bancorp | (0.20) | 6 per month | 0.86 | 0.11 | 2.06 | (1.55) | 5.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bogota Financial
For every potential investor in Bogota, whether a beginner or expert, Bogota Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bogota Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bogota. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bogota Financial's price trends.Bogota Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bogota Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bogota Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bogota Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bogota Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bogota Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bogota Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bogota Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bogota Financial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 125.9 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.43) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 8.57 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 8.55 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.12) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) |
Bogota Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bogota Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bogota Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bogota stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8638 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Variance | 1.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bogota Financial
The number of cover stories for Bogota Financial depends on current market conditions and Bogota Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bogota Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bogota Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Bogota Financial Short Properties
Bogota Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bogota Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bogota Financial Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bogota Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bogota Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 151.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bogota Financial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bogota Financial. Projected growth potential of Bogota fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Bogota Financial assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.45) | Earnings Share 0.04 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.429 | Return On Assets |
Bogota Financial Corp's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Bogota's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Bogota Financial's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Bogota Financial's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Bogota Financial's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Bogota Financial should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Bogota Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.