Colony Bankcorp Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CBAN Stock | USD 19.48 0.92 4.96% |
Colony Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Colony Bankcorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Colony Bankcorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Colony Bankcorp fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Colony Bankcorp's stock price is about 65 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Colony, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.031 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.48 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.11 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.27 | Wall Street Target Price 19.75 |
Using Colony Bankcorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Colony Bankcorp from the perspective of Colony Bankcorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Colony Bankcorp using Colony Bankcorp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Colony using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Colony Bankcorp's stock price.
Colony Bankcorp Implied Volatility | 0.82 |
Colony Bankcorp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Colony Bankcorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Colony Bankcorp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Colony Bankcorp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Colony Bankcorp's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Colony Bankcorp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.40. Colony Bankcorp after-hype prediction price | USD 19.48 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Colony Bankcorp to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Colony contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Colony Bankcorp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0513% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Colony Bankcorp trading at USD 19.48, that is roughly USD 0.009984 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Colony Bankcorp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Colony Bankcorp options at the current volatility level of 0.82%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Colony Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Colony Bankcorp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Colony Bankcorp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Colony Bankcorp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Colony Bankcorp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Colony Bankcorp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Colony Bankcorp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Colony. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Colony Bankcorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Colony price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Colony using various technical indicators. When you analyze Colony charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Colony Bankcorp Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Colony Bankcorp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Colony Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Colony Bankcorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Colony Bankcorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Colony Bankcorp | Colony Bankcorp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Colony Bankcorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Colony Bankcorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Colony Bankcorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.95 and 21.01, respectively. We have considered Colony Bankcorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Colony Bankcorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Colony Bankcorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5316 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.059 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1869 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0105 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.4 |
Predictive Modules for Colony Bankcorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Colony Bankcorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Colony Bankcorp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Colony Bankcorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Colony Bankcorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Colony Bankcorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Colony Bankcorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Colony Bankcorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Colony Bankcorp's historical news coverage. Colony Bankcorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.97 and 20.99, respectively. We have considered Colony Bankcorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Colony Bankcorp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Colony Bankcorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Colony Bankcorp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Colony Bankcorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Colony Bankcorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Colony Bankcorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 1.53 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 14 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 14 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
19.48 | 19.48 | 0.00 |
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Colony Bankcorp Hype Timeline
Colony Bankcorp is currently traded for 19.48. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Colony is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.34%. %. The volatility of related hype on Colony Bankcorp is about 1100.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.43. About 52.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.31. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Colony Bankcorp last dividend was issued on the 5th of November 2025. The entity had 5:4 split on the 17th of May 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 14 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Colony Bankcorp to cross-verify your projections.Colony Bankcorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Colony Bankcorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Colony Bankcorp's future price movements. Getting to know how Colony Bankcorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Colony Bankcorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PLBC | Plumas Bancorp | 0.19 | 11 per month | 0.72 | 0.13 | 3.00 | (1.66) | 11.73 | |
| FNLC | First Bancorp | (0.46) | 9 per month | 1.24 | 0.03 | 3.44 | (2.04) | 7.07 | |
| WSBF | Waterstone Financial | 0.03 | 7 per month | 0.98 | 0.14 | 2.59 | (2.52) | 8.13 | |
| FSBW | FS Bancorp | (0.03) | 19 per month | 1.24 | 0.02 | 3.96 | (2.12) | 12.80 | |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.32 | 0.15 | 7.12 | (4.19) | 20.02 | |
| CZNC | Citizens Northern Corp | (0.06) | 9 per month | 1.17 | 0.12 | 3.20 | (1.71) | 7.41 | |
| TSBK | Timberland Bancorp | (0.32) | 6 per month | 1.05 | 0.14 | 3.45 | (1.95) | 8.74 | |
| COSO | CoastalSouth Bancshares | (0.34) | 21 per month | 0.85 | 0.09 | 1.66 | (1.54) | 6.77 | |
| BCML | BayCom Corp | (0.47) | 6 per month | 1.47 | 0.02 | 3.46 | (2.78) | 9.92 | |
| JMSB | John Marshall Bancorp | 0.07 | 8 per month | 1.78 | 0.03 | 3.37 | (2.77) | 15.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for Colony Bankcorp
For every potential investor in Colony, whether a beginner or expert, Colony Bankcorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Colony Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Colony. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Colony Bankcorp's price trends.Colony Bankcorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Colony Bankcorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Colony Bankcorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Colony Bankcorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Colony Bankcorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Colony Bankcorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Colony Bankcorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Colony Bankcorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Colony Bankcorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Colony Bankcorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Colony Bankcorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Colony Bankcorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting colony stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Variance | 2.3 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.74 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.21) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Colony Bankcorp
The number of cover stories for Colony Bankcorp depends on current market conditions and Colony Bankcorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Colony Bankcorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Colony Bankcorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Colony Bankcorp Short Properties
Colony Bankcorp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Colony Bankcorp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Colony Bankcorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Colony Bankcorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Colony Bankcorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 64.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Colony Bankcorp to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Colony Stock, please use our How to Invest in Colony Bankcorp guide.You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Will Regional Banks sector continue expanding? Could Colony diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Colony Bankcorp. Projected growth potential of Colony fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Colony Bankcorp data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.031 | Earnings Share 1.59 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.144 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Colony Bankcorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Colony that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Colony Bankcorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Colony Bankcorp's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Colony Bankcorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Colony Bankcorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Colony Bankcorp's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Colony Bankcorp should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Colony Bankcorp's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.