Commercial Bancgroup Stock Forward View
| CBK Stock | USD 27.18 0.24 0.89% |
Commercial Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Commercial Bancgroup's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Commercial Bancgroup's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Commercial Bancgroup fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Commercial Bancgroup's stock price is about 65 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Commercial, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Commercial Bancgroup hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Commercial Bancgroup Common from the perspective of Commercial Bancgroup response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Commercial Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Commercial Bancgroup Common on the next trading day is expected to be 27.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.95.Commercial Bancgroup Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Commercial Bancgroup's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Commercial. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Commercial can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Commercial Bancgroup Common. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Commercial Bancgroup's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Commercial Bancgroup.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Commercial Bancgroup Common on the next trading day is expected to be 27.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.95. Commercial Bancgroup after-hype prediction price | USD 26.95 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Commercial | Build AI portfolio with Commercial Stock |
Commercial Bancgroup Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Commercial price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Commercial using various technical indicators. When you analyze Commercial charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Commercial Bancgroup Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Commercial Bancgroup's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 121 M | Current Value 111.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 9.8 M |
Commercial Bancgroup Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Commercial Bancgroup Common on the next trading day is expected to be 27.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Commercial Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Commercial Bancgroup's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Commercial Bancgroup Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Commercial Bancgroup | Commercial Bancgroup Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Commercial Bancgroup Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Commercial Bancgroup's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Commercial Bancgroup's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.01 and 28.80, respectively. We have considered Commercial Bancgroup's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Commercial Bancgroup stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Commercial Bancgroup stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0486 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2942 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0119 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.947 |
Predictive Modules for Commercial Bancgroup
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commercial Bancgroup. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Commercial Bancgroup After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Commercial Bancgroup at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Commercial Bancgroup or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Commercial Bancgroup, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Commercial Bancgroup Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Commercial Bancgroup's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Commercial Bancgroup's historical news coverage. Commercial Bancgroup's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.56 and 28.34, respectively. We have considered Commercial Bancgroup's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Commercial Bancgroup is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Commercial Bancgroup is based on 3 months time horizon.
Commercial Bancgroup Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Commercial Bancgroup is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Commercial Bancgroup backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Commercial Bancgroup, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 1.39 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
27.18 | 26.95 | 0.04 |
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Commercial Bancgroup Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Commercial Bancgroup is traded for 27.18. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Commercial is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 26.95 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Commercial Bancgroup is about 1112.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 27.16. The company reported the last year's revenue of 131.53 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 31.69 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 0. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Commercial Bancgroup to cross-verify your projections.Commercial Bancgroup Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Commercial Bancgroup's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Commercial Bancgroup's future price movements. Getting to know how Commercial Bancgroup's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Commercial Bancgroup may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OBT | Orange County Bancorp | 0.04 | 10 per month | 1.27 | 0.21 | 3.57 | (2.65) | 8.69 | |
| FMAO | Farmers Merchants Bancorp | 0.70 | 7 per month | 1.63 | 0.09 | 4.61 | (3.40) | 10.83 | |
| MVBF | MVB Financial Corp | (0.37) | 8 per month | 1.40 | 0.05 | 3.48 | (2.90) | 8.93 | |
| USCB | US Century Bank | 0.08 | 7 per month | 1.74 | 0.06 | 3.69 | (2.66) | 11.45 | |
| BWFG | Bankwell Financial Group | (0.49) | 9 per month | 1.55 | 0.08 | 2.65 | (2.04) | 8.30 | |
| RBB | RBB Bancorp | (0.66) | 9 per month | 1.34 | 0.07 | 3.40 | (2.72) | 10.12 | |
| PBFS | Pioneer Bancorp | (0.30) | 8 per month | 1.29 | 0.05 | 2.87 | (1.87) | 8.41 | |
| PCB | PCB Bancorp | 0.30 | 10 per month | 1.49 | 0.05 | 2.99 | (2.36) | 8.70 | |
| MSBI | Midland States Bancorp | (0.33) | 10 per month | 1.78 | 0.20 | 6.49 | (1.71) | 14.42 | |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group | (0.22) | 9 per month | 1.20 | 0.10 | 3.50 | (2.44) | 9.42 |
Other Forecasting Options for Commercial Bancgroup
For every potential investor in Commercial, whether a beginner or expert, Commercial Bancgroup's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Commercial Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Commercial. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Commercial Bancgroup's price trends.Commercial Bancgroup Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Commercial Bancgroup stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Commercial Bancgroup could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Commercial Bancgroup by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Commercial Bancgroup Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Commercial Bancgroup stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Commercial Bancgroup shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Commercial Bancgroup stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Commercial Bancgroup Common entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Commercial Bancgroup Risk Indicators
The analysis of Commercial Bancgroup's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Commercial Bancgroup's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting commercial stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9611 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Variance | 1.86 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.6 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.15 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Commercial Bancgroup
The number of cover stories for Commercial Bancgroup depends on current market conditions and Commercial Bancgroup's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Commercial Bancgroup is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Commercial Bancgroup's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Commercial Bancgroup to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Is Diversified Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commercial Bancgroup. Projected growth potential of Commercial fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Commercial Bancgroup assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Commercial Bancgroup's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Commercial's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Commercial Bancgroup's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Commercial Bancgroup's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Commercial Bancgroup's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Commercial Bancgroup should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Commercial Bancgroup's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.