Churchill Capital Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| CCIX Stock | 10.68 0.01 0.09% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Churchill Capital Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.88. Churchill Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Churchill Capital's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Churchill Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Churchill Capital Corp from the perspective of Churchill Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Churchill Capital Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.88. Churchill Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 10.67 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Churchill Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Churchill price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Churchill using various technical indicators. When you analyze Churchill charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Churchill Capital Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Churchill Capital Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Churchill Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Churchill Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Churchill Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
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Churchill Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Churchill Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Churchill Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.48 and 10.87, respectively. We have considered Churchill Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Churchill Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Churchill Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 106.6552 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0021 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.015 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0014 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.885 |
Predictive Modules for Churchill Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Churchill Capital Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Churchill Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Churchill Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Churchill Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Churchill Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Churchill Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Churchill Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Churchill Capital's historical news coverage. Churchill Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.47 and 10.87, respectively. We have considered Churchill Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Churchill Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Churchill Capital Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Churchill Capital Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Churchill Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Churchill Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Churchill Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
10.68 | 10.67 | 0.00 |
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Churchill Capital Hype Timeline
Churchill Capital Corp is currently traded for 10.68. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Churchill is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Churchill Capital is about 107.53%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.68. About 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.33. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Churchill Capital Corp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.59. The entity last dividend was issued on the November 13, 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Churchill Capital to cross-verify your projections.Churchill Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Churchill Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Churchill Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Churchill Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Churchill Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GPAT | GP Act III Acquisition | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.44) | 0.19 | (0.19) | 0.94 | |
| GIG | GigCapital7 Corp Class | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.54) | 0.19 | (0.37) | 1.12 | |
| ALF | Centurion Acquisition Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.03 | (0.40) | 0.38 | (0.28) | 0.85 | |
| TACO | Berto Acquisition Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 0.20 | (0.29) | 3.77 | |
| PSBD | Palmer Square Capital | 0.06 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.57 | (1.42) | 5.35 | |
| VBNK | VersaBank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.82 | 0.20 | 2.90 | (1.67) | 12.37 | |
| RM | Regional Management Corp | (0.79) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.68 | (3.78) | 13.72 | |
| BMRC | Bank of Marin | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.21 | (0) | 3.09 | (2.00) | 7.47 | |
| FRBA | First Bank | (0.01) | 8 per month | 1.26 | 0.05 | 3.29 | (1.82) | 8.53 | |
| BSVN | Bank7 Corp | (1.12) | 8 per month | 1.43 | (0.02) | 2.39 | (2.38) | 5.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for Churchill Capital
For every potential investor in Churchill, whether a beginner or expert, Churchill Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Churchill Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Churchill. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Churchill Capital's price trends.Churchill Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Churchill Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Churchill Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Churchill Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Churchill Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Churchill Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Churchill Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Churchill Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Churchill Capital Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1811.61 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.0 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.68 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.68 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 |
Churchill Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Churchill Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Churchill Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting churchill stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1317 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1955 | |||
| Variance | 0.0382 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Churchill Capital
The number of cover stories for Churchill Capital depends on current market conditions and Churchill Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Churchill Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Churchill Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Churchill Capital Short Properties
Churchill Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Churchill Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Churchill Capital Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Churchill Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Churchill Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 28.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.4 M |
Additional Tools for Churchill Stock Analysis
When running Churchill Capital's price analysis, check to measure Churchill Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Churchill Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Churchill Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Churchill Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Churchill Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Churchill Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.