Commercial National Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CEFC Stock | USD 14.00 0.33 2.41% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Commercial National Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 14.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.45. Commercial Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Commercial National stock prices and determine the direction of Commercial National Financial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Commercial National's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Commercial National's share price is below 20 suggesting that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Commercial National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Commercial National Financial from the perspective of Commercial National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Commercial National Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 14.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.45. Commercial National after-hype prediction price | USD 14.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Commercial |
Commercial National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Commercial price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Commercial using various technical indicators. When you analyze Commercial charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Commercial National Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Commercial National Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 14.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Commercial Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Commercial National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Commercial National Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Commercial National Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Commercial National's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Commercial National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.04 and 14.96, respectively. We have considered Commercial National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Commercial National pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Commercial National pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.1629 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0292 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0742 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0056 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.45 |
Predictive Modules for Commercial National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commercial National. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Commercial National After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Commercial National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Commercial National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Commercial National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Commercial National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Commercial National's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Commercial National's historical news coverage. Commercial National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.04 and 14.96, respectively. We have considered Commercial National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Commercial National is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Commercial National is based on 3 months time horizon.
Commercial National Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Commercial National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Commercial National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Commercial National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.00 | 14.00 | 0.00 |
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Commercial National Hype Timeline
Commercial National is currently traded for 14.00. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Commercial is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Commercial National is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.00. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.58. Commercial National last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2022. The entity had 105:100 split on the 12th of November 2003. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Commercial National to cross-verify your projections.Commercial National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Commercial National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Commercial National's future price movements. Getting to know how Commercial National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Commercial National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NIDB | Northeast Indiana Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.96 | 0.01 | 1.94 | (1.83) | 7.18 | |
| HFBK | Harford Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | 0.08 | 3.29 | (2.21) | 13.08 | |
| FFWC | FFW Corporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.69 | (0.55) | 3.53 | |
| PBKX | Partners Bank of | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.25 | 0.18 | 3.01 | (1.00) | 5.98 | |
| LSFG | Lifestore Financial Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.77 | (0.02) | 4.28 | (4.08) | 20.93 | |
| CBAF | Citba Financial Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.53 | 0.13 | 2.62 | (1.90) | 16.61 | |
| MBKL | MBT Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.03 | 0.04 | 5.73 | (3.38) | 22.40 | |
| PEBC | Peoples Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 0.63 | (1.02) | 3.13 | |
| HLFN | Home Loan Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.19 | 2.35 | (0.60) | 8.23 | |
| BAOB | Baraboo Bancorporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.05 | 0.11 | 2.45 | (1.78) | 11.56 |
Other Forecasting Options for Commercial National
For every potential investor in Commercial, whether a beginner or expert, Commercial National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Commercial Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Commercial. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Commercial National's price trends.Commercial National Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Commercial National pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Commercial National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Commercial National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Commercial National Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Commercial National pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Commercial National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Commercial National pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Commercial National Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.17 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.33 |
Commercial National Risk Indicators
The analysis of Commercial National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Commercial National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting commercial pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6585 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.95 | |||
| Variance | 0.9025 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7005 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.04) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.20) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Commercial National
The number of cover stories for Commercial National depends on current market conditions and Commercial National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Commercial National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Commercial National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Commercial Pink Sheet
Commercial National financial ratios help investors to determine whether Commercial Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Commercial with respect to the benefits of owning Commercial National security.