CF Industries Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CF Stock | USD 91.74 0.09 0.1% |
CF Industries Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CF Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of CF Industries' stock price is roughly 63 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 27th of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling CF Industries, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using CF Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CF Industries Holdings from the perspective of CF Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CF Industries Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 95.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.83. CF Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 91.74 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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CF Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CF Industries price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CF Industries using various technical indicators. When you analyze CF Industries charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CF Industries Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CF Industries Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 95.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.16, mean absolute percentage error of 2.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CF Industries Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CF Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CF Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CF Industries | CF Industries Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CF Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CF Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CF Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 93.82 and 97.62, respectively. We have considered CF Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CF Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CF Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.8113 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1611 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0143 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 70.8284 |
Predictive Modules for CF Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CF Industries Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CF Industries After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CF Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CF Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CF Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CF Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CF Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CF Industries' historical news coverage. CF Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 89.84 and 93.64, respectively. We have considered CF Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CF Industries is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CF Industries Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
CF Industries Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CF Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CF Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CF Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.90 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
91.74 | 91.74 | 0.00 |
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CF Industries Hype Timeline
As of January 27, 2026 CF Industries Holdings is listed for 91.74. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.06. CF Industries is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on CF Industries is about 538.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 91.80. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of CF Industries was currently reported as 30.75. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.62. CF Industries Holdings recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.27. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2025. The firm had 5:1 split on the 18th of June 2015. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CF Industries to cross-verify your projections.CF Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CF Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CF Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how CF Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CF Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CX | Cemex SAB de | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.16 | 0.18 | 3.03 | (1.75) | 8.17 | |
| SQM | Sociedad Quimica y | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.73 | 0.34 | 6.22 | (3.78) | 13.34 | |
| RPM | RPM International | 0.83 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.54 | (2.53) | 6.87 | |
| MOS | The Mosaic | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.51 | (0.02) | 4.05 | (4.97) | 11.69 | |
| AGI | Alamos Gold | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.07 | 0.18 | 5.03 | (4.06) | 12.47 | |
| RS | Reliance Steel Aluminum | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.71 | 0.14 | 2.67 | (1.55) | 5.44 | |
| PAAS | Pan American Silver | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.81 | 0.29 | 7.44 | (3.89) | 16.85 | |
| ICL | ICL Israel Chemicals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.38 | (3.62) | 18.08 | |
| SUZ | Suzano Papel e | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.89 | 0.06 | 1.99 | (1.69) | 7.81 | |
| LYB | LyondellBasell Industries NV | 2.70 | 8 per month | 2.26 | 0.06 | 5.73 | (3.84) | 11.53 |
Other Forecasting Options for CF Industries
For every potential investor in CF Industries, whether a beginner or expert, CF Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CF Industries Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CF Industries. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CF Industries' price trends.CF Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CF Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CF Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CF Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CF Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CF Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CF Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CF Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CF Industries Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CF Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of CF Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CF Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cf industries stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Variance | 3.6 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.26 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.33 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CF Industries
The number of cover stories for CF Industries depends on current market conditions and CF Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CF Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CF Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CF Industries Short Properties
CF Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when CF Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CF Industries Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CF Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CF Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 180.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CF Industries to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Is Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CF Industries. If investors know CF Industries will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CF Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of CF Industries Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CF Industries that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CF Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CF Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CF Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CF Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CF Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CF Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CF Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.