Confluent Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CFLT Stock | USD 30.53 0.03 0.1% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Confluent on the next trading day is expected to be 32.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.01. Confluent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength indicator of Confluent's stock price is slightly above 69 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Confluent, making its price go up or down. Momentum 69
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0939 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.3991 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.4804 | Wall Street Target Price 30.65 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.0973 |
Using Confluent hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Confluent from the perspective of Confluent response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Confluent using Confluent's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Confluent using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Confluent's stock price.
Confluent Short Interest
An investor who is long Confluent may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Confluent and may potentially protect profits, hedge Confluent with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 23.1183 | Short Percent 0.0665 | Short Ratio 1.01 | Shares Short Prior Month 14.5 M | 50 Day MA 27.0302 |
Confluent Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Confluent's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Confluent. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Confluent can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Confluent. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Confluent Implied Volatility | 0.44 |
Confluent's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Confluent stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Confluent's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Confluent stock will not fluctuate a lot when Confluent's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Confluent on the next trading day is expected to be 32.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.01. Confluent after-hype prediction price | USD 30.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Confluent | Build AI portfolio with Confluent Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Confluent contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Confluent will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0275% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Confluent trading at USD 30.53, that is roughly USD 0.008396 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Confluent's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Confluent options at the current volatility level of 0.44%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Confluent Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Confluent's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Confluent's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Confluent stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Confluent's open interest, investors have to compare it to Confluent's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Confluent is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Confluent. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Confluent Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Confluent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Confluent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Confluent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Confluent's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2020-03-31 | Previous Quarter 295.6 M | Current Value 298.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 333 M |
Confluent Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Confluent on the next trading day is expected to be 32.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98, mean absolute percentage error of 1.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Confluent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Confluent's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Confluent Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Confluent | Confluent Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Confluent Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Confluent's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Confluent's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.53 and 36.94, respectively. We have considered Confluent's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Confluent stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Confluent stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5148 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9838 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0381 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 60.0119 |
Predictive Modules for Confluent
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Confluent. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Confluent After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Confluent at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Confluent or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Confluent, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Confluent Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Confluent's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Confluent's historical news coverage. Confluent's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.33 and 34.73, respectively. We have considered Confluent's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Confluent is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Confluent is based on 3 months time horizon.
Confluent Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Confluent is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Confluent backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Confluent, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.56 | 4.20 | 0.25 | 0.27 | 6 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
30.53 | 30.53 | 0.00 |
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Confluent Hype Timeline
Confluent is currently traded for 30.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.25, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.27. Confluent is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.56%. %. The volatility of related hype on Confluent is about 876.83%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.26. About 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.15. Confluent recorded a loss per share of 0.9. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Confluent to cross-verify your projections.Confluent Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Confluent's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Confluent's future price movements. Getting to know how Confluent's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Confluent may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DBX | Dropbox | 0.15 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.53 | (2.46) | 15.22 | |
| WIX | WixCom | (0.45) | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 5.17 | (4.31) | 27.47 | |
| KVYO | Klaviyo | (0.45) | 12 per month | 3.08 | 0.03 | 5.07 | (5.10) | 17.39 | |
| BLSH | Bullish | (1.66) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.75 | (7.72) | 15.46 | |
| PATH | Uipath Inc | (0.45) | 3 per month | 3.81 | (0.01) | 6.74 | (7.23) | 31.73 | |
| CORZ | Core Scientific Common | (0.45) | 3 per month | 4.08 | (0.02) | 7.09 | (7.56) | 17.30 | |
| INFA | Informatica | (0.45) | 17 per month | 0.00 | (1.29) | 0.08 | (0.08) | 0.44 | |
| DOX | Amdocs | 0.21 | 8 per month | 1.79 | (0.06) | 1.50 | (1.79) | 9.17 | |
| NICE | Nice Ltd ADR | 0.94 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.22 | (3.81) | 18.80 | |
| TTAN | ServiceTitan Class A | (2.18) | 11 per month | 2.69 | (0.04) | 3.83 | (4.54) | 17.57 |
Other Forecasting Options for Confluent
For every potential investor in Confluent, whether a beginner or expert, Confluent's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Confluent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Confluent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Confluent's price trends.Confluent Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Confluent stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Confluent could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Confluent by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Confluent Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Confluent stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Confluent shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Confluent stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Confluent entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Confluent Risk Indicators
The analysis of Confluent's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Confluent's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting confluent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.04 | |||
| Variance | 16.36 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.2 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.11) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Confluent
The number of cover stories for Confluent depends on current market conditions and Confluent's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Confluent is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Confluent's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Confluent Short Properties
Confluent's future price predictability will typically decrease when Confluent's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Confluent often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Confluent's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Confluent's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 321.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.9 B |
Additional Tools for Confluent Stock Analysis
When running Confluent's price analysis, check to measure Confluent's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Confluent is operating at the current time. Most of Confluent's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Confluent's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Confluent's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Confluent to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.