Churchill Downs Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CHDN Stock | USD 93.69 1.79 1.87% |
Churchill Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength indicator of Churchill Downs' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Churchill Downs hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Churchill Downs Incorporated from the perspective of Churchill Downs response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Churchill Downs Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 93.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.49. Churchill Downs after-hype prediction price | USD 95.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Churchill Downs Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Churchill price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Churchill using various technical indicators. When you analyze Churchill charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Churchill Downs Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Churchill Downs Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 93.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14, mean absolute percentage error of 2.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Churchill Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Churchill Downs' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Churchill Downs Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Churchill Downs | Churchill Downs Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Churchill Downs Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Churchill Downs' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Churchill Downs' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 91.55 and 94.48, respectively. We have considered Churchill Downs' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Churchill Downs stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Churchill Downs stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3566 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1438 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0108 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 67.4868 |
Predictive Modules for Churchill Downs
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Churchill Downs. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Churchill Downs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Churchill Downs After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Churchill Downs at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Churchill Downs or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Churchill Downs, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Churchill Downs Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Churchill Downs' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Churchill Downs' historical news coverage. Churchill Downs' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 93.97 and 96.91, respectively. We have considered Churchill Downs' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Churchill Downs is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Churchill Downs is based on 3 months time horizon.
Churchill Downs Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Churchill Downs is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Churchill Downs backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Churchill Downs, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.47 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
93.69 | 95.44 | 0.04 |
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Churchill Downs Hype Timeline
Churchill Downs is currently traded for 93.69. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Churchill is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 95.44. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Churchill Downs is about 633.62%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 93.70. About 80.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.58. Churchill Downs recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.5. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of December 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 22nd of May 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Churchill Downs to cross-verify your projections.Churchill Downs Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Churchill Downs' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Churchill Downs' future price movements. Getting to know how Churchill Downs' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Churchill Downs may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LNW | Light Wonder | (2.01) | 8 per month | 1.62 | 0.09 | 3.55 | (2.94) | 14.31 | |
| BYD | Boyd Gaming | (0.49) | 11 per month | 1.10 | 0.08 | 2.56 | (1.86) | 6.83 | |
| MHK | Mohawk Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.38 | 0.13 | 4.54 | (2.79) | 10.72 | |
| MTN | Vail Resorts | (2.62) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.85 | (3.37) | 13.29 | |
| MNSO | Miniso Group Holding | (0.19) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.59 | (3.58) | 9.84 | |
| HRB | HR Block | (0.46) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 1.90 | (3.93) | 10.41 | |
| BIRK | Birkenstock Holding plc | 0.30 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.30 | (3.43) | 16.78 | |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.72 | 0.32 | 3.31 | (1.43) | 7.29 | |
| MUSA | Murphy USA | 7.79 | 11 per month | 2.27 | 0.07 | 2.90 | (2.45) | 6.88 | |
| SGHC | SGHC Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.20 | (5.92) | 15.45 |
Other Forecasting Options for Churchill Downs
For every potential investor in Churchill, whether a beginner or expert, Churchill Downs' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Churchill Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Churchill. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Churchill Downs' price trends.Churchill Downs Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Churchill Downs stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Churchill Downs could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Churchill Downs by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Churchill Downs Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Churchill Downs stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Churchill Downs shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Churchill Downs stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Churchill Downs Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 18937.19 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.61) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 94.88 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 94.48 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.08) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.79) |
Churchill Downs Risk Indicators
The analysis of Churchill Downs' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Churchill Downs' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting churchill stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Variance | 2.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Churchill Downs
The number of cover stories for Churchill Downs depends on current market conditions and Churchill Downs' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Churchill Downs is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Churchill Downs' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Churchill Downs Short Properties
Churchill Downs' future price predictability will typically decrease when Churchill Downs' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Churchill Downs Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Churchill Downs' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Churchill Downs' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 74.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 175.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Churchill Downs to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Will Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure sector continue expanding? Could Churchill diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Churchill Downs. Projected growth potential of Churchill fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Churchill Downs data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding Churchill Downs requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Churchill's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Churchill Downs' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Churchill Downs' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Churchill Downs' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Churchill Downs should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Churchill Downs' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.