Chemung Financial Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CHMG Stock | USD 61.76 0.99 1.63% |
Chemung Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Chemung Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Chemung Financial's stock price is roughly 64 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 3rd of February 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Chemung, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.299 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.585 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.1 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.2 | Wall Street Target Price 64 |
Using Chemung Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Chemung Financial Corp from the perspective of Chemung Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Chemung Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chemung Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 61.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.39.Chemung Financial Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Chemung Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Chemung. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Chemung can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Chemung Financial Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Chemung Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Chemung Financial.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chemung Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 61.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.39. Chemung Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 61.56 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chemung Financial to cross-verify your projections. Chemung Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Chemung price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Chemung using various technical indicators. When you analyze Chemung charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Chemung Financial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Chemung Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 61.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79, mean absolute percentage error of 1.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.39.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chemung Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chemung Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Chemung Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Chemung Financial | Chemung Financial Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Chemung Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Chemung Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chemung Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 59.89 and 63.63, respectively. We have considered Chemung Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chemung Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chemung Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.3648 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1792 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7898 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0142 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 47.39 |
Predictive Modules for Chemung Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chemung Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Chemung Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Chemung Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Chemung Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Chemung Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Chemung Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Chemung Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Chemung Financial's historical news coverage. Chemung Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 59.69 and 63.43, respectively. We have considered Chemung Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Chemung Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Chemung Financial Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Chemung Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Chemung Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Chemung Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Chemung Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 1.87 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
61.76 | 61.56 | 0.32 |
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Chemung Financial Hype Timeline
Chemung Financial Corp is currently traded for 61.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Chemung is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 61.56. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.32%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.33%. The volatility of related hype on Chemung Financial is about 1062.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 61.82. About 14.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.15. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Chemung Financial Corp last dividend was issued on the 19th of December 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 3rd of June 1998. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chemung Financial to cross-verify your projections.Chemung Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Chemung Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Chemung Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Chemung Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Chemung Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NWFL | Norwood Financial Corp | 0.26 | 9 per month | 0.93 | 0.14 | 3.40 | (2.00) | 6.55 | |
| WNEB | Western New England | 0.17 | 5 per month | 0.90 | 0.17 | 3.24 | (2.14) | 7.72 | |
| FINW | Finwise Bancorp | 0.23 | 9 per month | 1.52 | 0.03 | 2.84 | (2.52) | 9.81 | |
| FDBC | Fidelity DD Bancorp | 0.50 | 9 per month | 1.60 | 0.03 | 4.03 | (2.73) | 9.91 | |
| FUNC | First United | (0.18) | 8 per month | 1.66 | 0.06 | 3.21 | (2.74) | 11.47 | |
| CZFS | Citizens Financial Services | (0.47) | 8 per month | 1.75 | 0.12 | 4.15 | (2.86) | 10.38 | |
| ISTR | Investar Holding Corp | 0.22 | 7 per month | 0.72 | 0.14 | 2.68 | (1.54) | 5.37 | |
| PVBC | Provident Bancorp | 0.04 | 18 per month | 0.52 | 0.06 | 1.73 | (1.08) | 3.72 | |
| MYFW | First Western Financial | 0.02 | 7 per month | 1.88 | 0.06 | 3.14 | (2.07) | 13.75 | |
| TSBK | Timberland Bancorp | 0.97 | 7 per month | 1.05 | 0.17 | 3.45 | (1.95) | 8.74 |
Other Forecasting Options for Chemung Financial
For every potential investor in Chemung, whether a beginner or expert, Chemung Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chemung Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chemung. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chemung Financial's price trends.Chemung Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chemung Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chemung Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chemung Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Chemung Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chemung Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chemung Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chemung Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Chemung Financial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Chemung Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Chemung Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chemung Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chemung stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Variance | 3.32 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.07 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.58) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Chemung Financial
The number of cover stories for Chemung Financial depends on current market conditions and Chemung Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Chemung Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Chemung Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Chemung Financial Short Properties
Chemung Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Chemung Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Chemung Financial Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Chemung Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chemung Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 303.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chemung Financial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Can Regional Banks industry sustain growth momentum? Does Chemung have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chemung Financial. Projected growth potential of Chemung fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating Chemung Financial demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.299 | Dividend Share 1.32 | Earnings Share 3.14 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.16 |
Chemung Financial Corp's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Chemung's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Chemung Financial's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. Since Chemung Financial's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Chemung Financial's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Chemung Financial should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Chemung Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.