Citizens Holding Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CIZN Stock | USD 9.75 0.30 3.17% |
Citizens Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Citizens Holding's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Citizens Holding's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Citizens Holding fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Citizens Holding's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.567 | Wall Street Target Price 24 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.174 |
Using Citizens Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Citizens Holding from the perspective of Citizens Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Citizens Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 9.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.30. Citizens Holding after-hype prediction price | USD 9.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citizens Holding to cross-verify your projections. Citizens Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Citizens price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Citizens using various technical indicators. When you analyze Citizens charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Citizens Holding Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Citizens Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 9.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Citizens Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Citizens Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Citizens Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Citizens Holding | Citizens Holding Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Citizens Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Citizens Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Citizens Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.01 and 11.49, respectively. We have considered Citizens Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Citizens Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Citizens Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.4351 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.05 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0883 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0109 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.3 |
Predictive Modules for Citizens Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Citizens Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Citizens Holding After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Citizens Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Citizens Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Citizens Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Citizens Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Citizens Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Citizens Holding's historical news coverage. Citizens Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.99 and 11.47, respectively. We have considered Citizens Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Citizens Holding is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Citizens Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Citizens Holding Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Citizens Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Citizens Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Citizens Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.62 | 1.74 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 5 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.75 | 9.73 | 0.21 |
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Citizens Holding Hype Timeline
Citizens Holding is currently traded for 9.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Citizens is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 9.73. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.21%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.62%. The volatility of related hype on Citizens Holding is about 1260.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.84. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.29. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Citizens Holding last dividend was issued on the 16th of June 2025. The entity had 3:2 split on the 2nd of January 2002. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citizens Holding to cross-verify your projections.Citizens Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Citizens Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Citizens Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how Citizens Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Citizens Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VTYB | The Victory Bancorp | 0.46 | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.17 | 2.61 | (0.88) | 5.79 | |
| MFBP | MF Bancorp | 0.46 | 9 per month | 1.07 | 0.07 | 3.63 | (2.34) | 8.74 | |
| FMFP | First Community Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | 0.05 | 5.13 | (2.12) | 12.41 | |
| ANDC | Andover Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.04 | (0.03) | 2.16 | (2.63) | 8.35 | |
| ALBY | Community Capital Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 0.86 | (0.86) | 4.47 | |
| WDFN | Woodlands Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.08 | 0.12 | 3.70 | (2.08) | 9.03 | |
| HCBN | HCB Financial Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.27 | (0.16) | 10.07 | |
| EXCH | Exchange Bankshares | 0.46 | 3 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 17.10 | |
| TMAK | Touchmark Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.89 | 0.05 | 6.99 | (7.23) | 16.08 | |
| OAKV | Oak View National | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.46 | 0.04 | 2.59 | (2.52) | 7.56 |
Other Forecasting Options for Citizens Holding
For every potential investor in Citizens, whether a beginner or expert, Citizens Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Citizens Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Citizens. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Citizens Holding's price trends.Citizens Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Citizens Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Citizens Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Citizens Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Citizens Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Citizens Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Citizens Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Citizens Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Citizens Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Citizens Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Citizens Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Citizens Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting citizens stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6627 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Variance | 2.9 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4392 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.42) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Citizens Holding
The number of cover stories for Citizens Holding depends on current market conditions and Citizens Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Citizens Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Citizens Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citizens Holding to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Citizens Stock, please use our How to Invest in Citizens Holding guide.You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Will Regional Banks sector continue expanding? Could Citizens diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Citizens Holding. Projected growth potential of Citizens fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Citizens Holding data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.567 | Dividend Share 0.04 | Earnings Share 0.33 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.174 |
The market value of Citizens Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Citizens that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Citizens Holding's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Citizens Holding's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Citizens Holding's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Citizens Holding's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Citizens Holding's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Citizens Holding should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Citizens Holding's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.