Comerica Incorporated Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CMA Stock | USD 88.67 4.19 4.51% |
Comerica Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Comerica Incorporated stock prices and determine the direction of Comerica Incorporated's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Comerica Incorporated's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Comerica Incorporated's share price is at 50 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Comerica Incorporated, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.036 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.2041 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.96 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.7006 | Wall Street Target Price 87.5833 |
Using Comerica Incorporated hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Comerica Incorporated from the perspective of Comerica Incorporated response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Comerica Incorporated using Comerica Incorporated's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Comerica using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Comerica Incorporated's stock price.
Comerica Incorporated Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Comerica Incorporated's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Comerica. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Comerica Incorporated stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 72.0281 | Short Percent 0.083 | Short Ratio 5.66 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.9 M | 50 Day MA 88.3238 |
Comerica Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Comerica Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 88.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.32.Comerica Incorporated Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Comerica Incorporated's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Comerica. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Comerica can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Comerica Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Comerica Incorporated's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Comerica Incorporated.
Comerica Incorporated Implied Volatility | 0.48 |
Comerica Incorporated's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Comerica Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Comerica Incorporated's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Comerica Incorporated stock will not fluctuate a lot when Comerica Incorporated's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Comerica Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 88.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.32. Comerica Incorporated after-hype prediction price | USD 89.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Comerica Incorporated to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Comerica contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Comerica Incorporated will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.03% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Comerica Incorporated trading at USD 88.67, that is roughly USD 0.0266 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Comerica Incorporated's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Comerica Incorporated options at the current volatility level of 0.48%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Comerica Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Comerica Incorporated's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Comerica Incorporated's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Comerica Incorporated stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Comerica Incorporated's open interest, investors have to compare it to Comerica Incorporated's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Comerica Incorporated is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Comerica. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Comerica Incorporated Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Comerica price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Comerica using various technical indicators. When you analyze Comerica charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Comerica Incorporated Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Comerica Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 88.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99, mean absolute percentage error of 2.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Comerica Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Comerica Incorporated's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Comerica Incorporated Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Comerica Incorporated | Comerica Incorporated Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Comerica Incorporated Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Comerica Incorporated's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Comerica Incorporated's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 87.07 and 90.39, respectively. We have considered Comerica Incorporated's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Comerica Incorporated stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Comerica Incorporated stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1275 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9885 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0113 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 58.32 |
Predictive Modules for Comerica Incorporated
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Comerica Incorporated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Comerica Incorporated After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Comerica Incorporated at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Comerica Incorporated or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Comerica Incorporated, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Comerica Incorporated Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Comerica Incorporated's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Comerica Incorporated's historical news coverage. Comerica Incorporated's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 88.14 and 91.46, respectively. We have considered Comerica Incorporated's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Comerica Incorporated is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Comerica Incorporated is based on 3 months time horizon.
Comerica Incorporated Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Comerica Incorporated is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Comerica Incorporated backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Comerica Incorporated, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 1.66 | 1.13 | 0.06 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
88.67 | 89.80 | 1.27 |
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Comerica Incorporated Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Comerica Incorporated is traded for 88.67. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Comerica is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 89.8 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 33.74%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 1.27%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Comerica Incorporated is about 666.96%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 88.73. The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.8 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 723 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.27 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Comerica Incorporated to cross-verify your projections.Comerica Incorporated Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Comerica Incorporated's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Comerica Incorporated's future price movements. Getting to know how Comerica Incorporated's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Comerica Incorporated may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WBS | Webster Financial | (1.91) | 9 per month | 1.06 | 0.14 | 2.80 | (1.77) | 7.21 | |
| GGAL | Grupo Financiero Galicia | 0.15 | 37 per month | 2.23 | 0.02 | 5.15 | (3.57) | 14.73 | |
| FHN | First Horizon National | (0.01) | 8 per month | 1.04 | 0.15 | 2.71 | (1.77) | 7.47 | |
| SSB | SouthState | 0.11 | 5 per month | 0.80 | 0.14 | 2.93 | (1.50) | 5.16 | |
| WTFC | Wintrust Financial | 3.12 | 8 per month | 1.14 | 0.12 | 2.62 | (1.57) | 8.80 | |
| CFG | Citizens Financial Group | (0.31) | 8 per month | 0.83 | 0.20 | 2.99 | (1.80) | 9.61 | |
| WAL | Western Alliance Bancorporation | 1.07 | 7 per month | 1.68 | 0.09 | 3.88 | (2.96) | 10.08 | |
| UMBF | UMB Financial | (0.87) | 10 per month | 1.08 | 0.1 | 3.61 | (1.53) | 6.43 | |
| ONB | Old National Bancorp | 0.89 | 8 per month | 1.07 | 0.17 | 2.93 | (1.59) | 7.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for Comerica Incorporated
For every potential investor in Comerica, whether a beginner or expert, Comerica Incorporated's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Comerica Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Comerica. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Comerica Incorporated's price trends.Comerica Incorporated Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Comerica Incorporated stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Comerica Incorporated could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Comerica Incorporated by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Comerica Incorporated Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Comerica Incorporated stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Comerica Incorporated shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Comerica Incorporated stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Comerica Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Comerica Incorporated Risk Indicators
The analysis of Comerica Incorporated's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Comerica Incorporated's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting comerica stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Variance | 2.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.17 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.25) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Comerica Incorporated
The number of cover stories for Comerica Incorporated depends on current market conditions and Comerica Incorporated's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Comerica Incorporated is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Comerica Incorporated's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Comerica Incorporated Short Properties
Comerica Incorporated's future price predictability will typically decrease when Comerica Incorporated's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Comerica Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Comerica Incorporated's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Comerica Incorporated's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 133 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 15.8 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Comerica Incorporated to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Comerica Stock refer to our How to Trade Comerica Stock guide.You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Is Diversified Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Comerica Incorporated. Projected growth potential of Comerica fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Comerica Incorporated assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.036 | Dividend Share 2.84 | Earnings Share 5.28 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.04 |
Comerica Incorporated's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Comerica's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Comerica Incorporated's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Comerica Incorporated's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Comerica Incorporated's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Comerica Incorporated should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Comerica Incorporated's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.