CNFinance Holdings Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CNF Stock | USD 5.68 0.08 1.39% |
CNFinance Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CNFinance Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 30th of January 2026, The relative strength indicator of CNFinance Holdings' share price is at 52 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling CNFinance Holdings, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.03) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.07 | Wall Street Target Price 20.544 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.75) |
Using CNFinance Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CNFinance Holdings from the perspective of CNFinance Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CNFinance Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 5.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.81. CNFinance Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 5.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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CNFinance Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CNFinance price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CNFinance using various technical indicators. When you analyze CNFinance charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CNFinance Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CNFinance Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 5.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CNFinance Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CNFinance Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CNFinance Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CNFinance Holdings | CNFinance Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CNFinance Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CNFinance Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CNFinance Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.21 and 11.15, respectively. We have considered CNFinance Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CNFinance Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CNFinance Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.6992 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0082 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1968 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0375 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.81 |
Predictive Modules for CNFinance Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CNFinance Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CNFinance Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CNFinance Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CNFinance Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CNFinance Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CNFinance Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CNFinance Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CNFinance Holdings' historical news coverage. CNFinance Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.25 and 11.19, respectively. We have considered CNFinance Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CNFinance Holdings is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CNFinance Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
CNFinance Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CNFinance Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CNFinance Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CNFinance Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 5.47 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.68 | 5.72 | 0.69 |
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CNFinance Holdings Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January CNFinance Holdings is traded for 5.68. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. CNFinance is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 5.72. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.69%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.32%. The volatility of related hype on CNFinance Holdings is about 21038.46%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.67. About 20.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.07. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. CNFinance Holdings recorded a loss per share of 1.15. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:10 split on the 5th of September 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CNFinance Holdings to cross-verify your projections.CNFinance Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CNFinance Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CNFinance Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how CNFinance Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CNFinance Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LMFA | LM Funding America | (0.07) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 11.11 | (10.17) | 34.58 | |
| CARV | Carver Bancorp | 0.05 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 13.17 | (13.85) | 53.88 | |
| ABTS | Abits Group | (0.11) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 10.52 | (8.66) | 25.72 | |
| TACO | Berto Acquisition Corp | (0.03) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 0.20 | (0.29) | 3.77 | |
| AURE | Prestige Wealth | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 13.64 | (10.71) | 31.22 | |
| GSIW | Garden Stage Limited | (0.01) | 11 per month | 3.57 | 0.01 | 7.69 | (7.14) | 19.17 | |
| MEGL | Magic Empire Global | (0.06) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.56 | (6.57) | 26.79 | |
| OXBR | Oxbridge Re Holdings | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 5.34 | (7.46) | 19.81 | |
| ATII | Archimedes Tech SPAC | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 0.39 | (0.29) | 1.14 | |
| PRHI | Presurance Holdings | (0.04) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 11.11 | (8.97) | 34.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for CNFinance Holdings
For every potential investor in CNFinance, whether a beginner or expert, CNFinance Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CNFinance Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CNFinance. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CNFinance Holdings' price trends.CNFinance Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CNFinance Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CNFinance Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CNFinance Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CNFinance Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CNFinance Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CNFinance Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CNFinance Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CNFinance Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CNFinance Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of CNFinance Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CNFinance Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cnfinance stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.71 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.8 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.34 | |||
| Variance | 28.51 | |||
| Downside Variance | 27.53 | |||
| Semi Variance | 23.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CNFinance Holdings
The number of cover stories for CNFinance Holdings depends on current market conditions and CNFinance Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CNFinance Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CNFinance Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CNFinance Holdings Short Properties
CNFinance Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when CNFinance Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CNFinance Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CNFinance Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CNFinance Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.8 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CNFinance Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in CNFinance Stock please use our How to Invest in CNFinance Holdings guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Can Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance industry sustain growth momentum? Does CNFinance have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CNFinance Holdings. Projected growth potential of CNFinance fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating CNFinance Holdings demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | Earnings Share (1.15) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.75) | Return On Assets |
Understanding CNFinance Holdings requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects CNFinance's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what CNFinance Holdings' is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push CNFinance Holdings' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between CNFinance Holdings' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding CNFinance Holdings should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, CNFinance Holdings' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.