Collective Mining Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CNL Stock | 16.78 0.15 0.90% |
Collective Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Collective Mining's stock price is about 66 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Collective, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Collective Mining hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Collective Mining from the perspective of Collective Mining response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Collective Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 17.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.10. Collective Mining after-hype prediction price | USD 16.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Collective Mining Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Collective price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Collective using various technical indicators. When you analyze Collective charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Collective Mining Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Collective Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 17.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.10.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Collective Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Collective Mining's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Collective Mining Stock Forecast Pattern
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Collective Mining Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Collective Mining's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Collective Mining's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.20 and 20.85, respectively. We have considered Collective Mining's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Collective Mining stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Collective Mining stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4674 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3459 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.027 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.1024 |
Predictive Modules for Collective Mining
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Collective Mining. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Collective Mining After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Collective Mining at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Collective Mining or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Collective Mining, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Collective Mining Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Collective Mining's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Collective Mining's historical news coverage. Collective Mining's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.45 and 20.11, respectively. We have considered Collective Mining's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Collective Mining is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Collective Mining is based on 3 months time horizon.
Collective Mining Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Collective Mining is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Collective Mining backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Collective Mining, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.73 | 3.33 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.78 | 16.78 | 0.00 |
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Collective Mining Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January Collective Mining is traded for 16.78. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.14. Collective is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.73%. %. The volatility of related hype on Collective Mining is about 1716.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.64. About 43.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.51. Collective Mining last dividend was issued on the February 4, 2016. The entity had 1:4 split on the 16th of July 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Collective Mining to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Collective Stock please use our How to buy in Collective Stock guide.Collective Mining Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Collective Mining's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Collective Mining's future price movements. Getting to know how Collective Mining's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Collective Mining may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CRML | Critical Metals Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.30 | 0.11 | 20.05 | (11.07) | 43.68 | |
| NAK | Northern Dynasty Minerals | (1.70) | 4 per month | 3.65 | 0.07 | 8.04 | (5.91) | 16.77 | |
| SLSR | Solaris Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.20 | 0.22 | 5.18 | (3.57) | 13.58 | |
| IAUX | i 80 Gold Corp | (0.12) | 2 per month | 2.51 | 0.32 | 5.62 | (3.31) | 14.98 | |
| BAK | Braskem SA Class | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.81 | 0.13 | 8.68 | (4.87) | 27.76 | |
| MUX | McEwen Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.22 | 0.15 | 6.49 | (4.81) | 14.79 | |
| UAN | CVR Partners LP | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.74 | 0.08 | 3.68 | (1.72) | 9.53 | |
| SCL | Stepan Company | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.21 | 0.19 | 3.48 | (2.57) | 7.15 | |
| ECVT | Ecovyst | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.74 | 0.19 | 3.11 | (2.86) | 13.76 | |
| REX | REX American Resources | (0.12) | 2 per month | 1.64 | 0 | 2.78 | (2.66) | 8.84 |
Other Forecasting Options for Collective Mining
For every potential investor in Collective, whether a beginner or expert, Collective Mining's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Collective Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Collective. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Collective Mining's price trends.Collective Mining Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Collective Mining stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Collective Mining could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Collective Mining by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Collective Mining Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Collective Mining stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Collective Mining shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Collective Mining stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Collective Mining entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Collective Mining Risk Indicators
The analysis of Collective Mining's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Collective Mining's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting collective stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.56 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.33 | |||
| Variance | 11.08 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.13 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.29 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.76) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Collective Mining
The number of cover stories for Collective Mining depends on current market conditions and Collective Mining's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Collective Mining is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Collective Mining's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Collective Mining Short Properties
Collective Mining's future price predictability will typically decrease when Collective Mining's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Collective Mining often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Collective Mining's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Collective Mining's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 68.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 38.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Collective Mining to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Collective Stock please use our How to buy in Collective Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Collective Mining. If investors know Collective will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Collective Mining listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Collective Mining is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Collective that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Collective Mining's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Collective Mining's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Collective Mining's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Collective Mining's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Collective Mining's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Collective Mining is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Collective Mining's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.