California Resources Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CRC Stock | USD 55.42 1.54 2.86% |
California Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast California Resources stock prices and determine the direction of California Resources Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of California Resources' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of relative strength index of California Resources' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.80) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6652 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.1899 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.7806 | Wall Street Target Price 63.6154 |
Using California Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of California Resources Corp from the perspective of California Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards California Resources using California Resources' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards California using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of California Resources' stock price.
California Resources Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in California Resources' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards California. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of California Resources stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 47.2265 | Short Percent 0.0741 | Short Ratio 4.43 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.6 M | 50 Day MA 47.5346 |
California Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of California Resources Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 56.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.73.California Resources Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to California Resources' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in California. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding California can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around California Resources Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of California Resources' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about California Resources.
California Resources Implied Volatility | 0.57 |
California Resources' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of California Resources Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if California Resources' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that California Resources stock will not fluctuate a lot when California Resources' options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of California Resources Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 56.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.73. California Resources after-hype prediction price | USD 55.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current California contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that California Resources Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0356% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With California Resources trading at USD 55.42, that is roughly USD 0.0197 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating California Resources' daily price movement you should consider acquiring California Resources Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 California Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast California Resources' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in California Resources' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for California Resources stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current California Resources' open interest, investors have to compare it to California Resources' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of California Resources is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in California. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
California Resources Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine California price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for California using various technical indicators. When you analyze California charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
California Resources Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of California Resources Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 56.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72, mean absolute percentage error of 0.85, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.73.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict California Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that California Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
California Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest California Resources | California Resources Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
California Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting California Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. California Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 54.06 and 58.05, respectively. We have considered California Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of California Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent California Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1496 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7243 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0152 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 42.7323 |
Predictive Modules for California Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as California Resources Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.California Resources After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of California Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in California Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of California Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
California Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting California Resources' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on California Resources' historical news coverage. California Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 53.16 and 57.16, respectively. We have considered California Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
California Resources is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of California Resources Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
California Resources Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as California Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading California Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with California Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 2.00 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
55.42 | 55.16 | 0.47 |
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California Resources Hype Timeline
On the 8th of February California Resources Corp is traded for 55.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.26, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. California is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 55.16. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.47%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.3%. The volatility of related hype on California Resources is about 536.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 55.31. About 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.44. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. California Resources Corp last dividend was issued on the 1st of December 2025. The entity had 1:10 split on the 1st of June 2016. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of California Resources to cross-verify your projections.California Resources Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to California Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict California Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how California Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how California Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MUR | Murphy Oil | (0.34) | 10 per month | 2.76 | 0.07 | 4.80 | (3.78) | 19.80 | |
| MGY | Magnolia Oil Gas | (0.22) | 8 per month | 1.44 | 0.12 | 2.98 | (2.90) | 7.67 | |
| MTDR | Matador Resources | 0.69 | 10 per month | 2.08 | 0.10 | 3.73 | (4.01) | 9.76 | |
| VAL | Valaris | (2.08) | 9 per month | 2.67 | 0.03 | 5.83 | (3.97) | 13.35 | |
| PBF | PBF Energy | 0.21 | 7 per month | 3.49 | 0 | 6.13 | (5.32) | 19.17 | |
| VVV | Valvoline | 0.48 | 10 per month | 1.42 | 0.1 | 3.83 | (2.66) | 8.27 | |
| GPOR | Gulfport Energy Operating | (4.10) | 10 per month | 2.56 | 0.03 | 3.11 | (4.05) | 11.99 | |
| UGP | Ultrapar Participacoes SA | (0.18) | 10 per month | 2.31 | 0.15 | 3.92 | (2.79) | 13.99 | |
| VIST | Vista Oil Gas | 0.65 | 9 per month | 2.60 | 0.05 | 4.21 | (4.38) | 13.64 | |
| BSM | Black Stone Minerals | 1.16 | 9 per month | 1.26 | 0.12 | 2.11 | (1.77) | 6.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for California Resources
For every potential investor in California, whether a beginner or expert, California Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. California Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in California. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying California Resources' price trends.California Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with California Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of California Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing California Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
California Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how California Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading California Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying California Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify California Resources Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
California Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of California Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in California Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting california stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Variance | 3.84 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.81 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.66 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.64) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for California Resources
The number of cover stories for California Resources depends on current market conditions and California Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that California Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about California Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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California Resources Short Properties
California Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when California Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of California Resources Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential California Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. California Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 81.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 372 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of California Resources to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Will Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sector continue expanding? Could California diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of California Resources. Projected growth potential of California fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every California Resources data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.80) | Dividend Share 1.55 | Earnings Share 4.17 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.12) |
Understanding California Resources Corp requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects California's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what California Resources' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push California Resources' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between California Resources' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding California Resources should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, California Resources' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.