California Resources Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

CRC Stock  USD 49.08  0.43  0.87%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of California Resources Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 46.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.07. California Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast California Resources stock prices and determine the direction of California Resources Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of California Resources' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of relative strength index of California Resources' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of California Resources' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with California Resources Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using California Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of California Resources Corp from the perspective of California Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of California Resources Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 46.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.07.

California Resources after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 49.08  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of California Resources to cross-verify your projections.

California Resources Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine California price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for California using various technical indicators. When you analyze California charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through California Resources price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

California Resources Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of California Resources Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 46.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12, mean absolute percentage error of 1.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.07.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict California Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that California Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

California Resources Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest California ResourcesCalifornia Resources Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

California Resources Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting California Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. California Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.54 and 48.16, respectively. We have considered California Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
49.08
46.35
Expected Value
48.16
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of California Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent California Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.769
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.116
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0241
SAESum of the absolute errors68.0746
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as California Resources Corp historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for California Resources

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as California Resources Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
47.2749.0850.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
45.9947.8049.61
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
42.9846.3349.67
Details

California Resources After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of California Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in California Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of California Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

California Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting California Resources' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on California Resources' historical news coverage. California Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 47.27 and 50.89, respectively. We have considered California Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
49.08
49.08
After-hype Price
50.89
Upside
California Resources is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of California Resources Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

California Resources Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as California Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading California Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with California Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.09 
1.81
  0.02 
  0.01 
15 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 15 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
49.08
49.08
0.00 
1,065  
Notes

California Resources Hype Timeline

On the 23rd of January California Resources Corp is traded for 49.08. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. California is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on California Resources is about 1103.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 49.09. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.27. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. California Resources Corp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.56. The entity last dividend was issued on the 1st of December 2025. The firm had 1:10 split on the 1st of June 2016. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 15 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of California Resources to cross-verify your projections.

California Resources Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to California Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict California Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how California Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how California Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MURMurphy Oil(0.37)7 per month 2.61  0.06  4.80 (3.78) 19.80 
MGYMagnolia Oil Gas 0.17 13 per month 1.60  0.01  2.70 (2.81) 6.80 
MTDRMatador Resources 0.09 11 per month 2.73 (0.02) 3.10 (4.26) 10.82 
VALValaris 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.05) 3.47 (3.39) 13.35 
PBFPBF Energy 0.00 0 per month 3.51  0  5.20 (5.32) 19.17 
VVVValvoline 0.38 6 per month 0.00 (0.05) 3.38 (2.97) 8.27 
GPORGulfport Energy Operating 0.20 12 per month 2.38  0.01  3.11 (3.84) 13.69 
UGPUltrapar Participacoes SA 0.70 4 per month 2.40  0.10  3.92 (2.79) 13.99 
VISTVista Oil Gas 0.17 2 per month 1.77  0.17  6.03 (3.43) 23.65 
BSMBlack Stone Minerals 0.30 7 per month 1.25  0.15  2.11 (1.77) 6.75 

Other Forecasting Options for California Resources

For every potential investor in California, whether a beginner or expert, California Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. California Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in California. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying California Resources' price trends.

California Resources Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with California Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of California Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing California Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

California Resources Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how California Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading California Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying California Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify California Resources Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

California Resources Risk Indicators

The analysis of California Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in California Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting california stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for California Resources

The number of cover stories for California Resources depends on current market conditions and California Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that California Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about California Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

California Resources Short Properties

California Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when California Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of California Resources Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential California Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. California Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding81.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments372 M
When determining whether California Resources Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of California Resources' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of California Resources Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on California Resources Corp Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of California Resources to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of California Resources. If investors know California will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about California Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of California Resources Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of California that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of California Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is California Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because California Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect California Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between California Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if California Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, California Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.