Carlisle Companies Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CSL Stock | USD 346.10 4.09 1.17% |
Carlisle Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Carlisle Companies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Carlisle Companies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Carlisle Companies fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Carlisle Companies' share price is at 53 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Carlisle Companies, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.2414 | EPS Estimate Current Year 19.0938 | EPS Estimate Next Year 20.6255 | Wall Street Target Price 371.25 |
Using Carlisle Companies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Carlisle Companies Incorporated from the perspective of Carlisle Companies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Carlisle Companies using Carlisle Companies' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Carlisle using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Carlisle Companies' stock price.
Carlisle Companies Short Interest
An investor who is long Carlisle Companies may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Carlisle Companies and may potentially protect profits, hedge Carlisle Companies with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 358.8007 | Short Percent 0.0817 | Short Ratio 6.18 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.5 M | 50 Day MA 330.2752 |
Carlisle Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Carlisle Companies Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 346.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 246.16.Carlisle Companies Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Carlisle Companies' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Carlisle. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Carlisle can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Carlisle Companies Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Carlisle Companies' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Carlisle Companies.
Carlisle Companies Implied Volatility | 0.4 |
Carlisle Companies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Carlisle Companies Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Carlisle Companies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Carlisle Companies stock will not fluctuate a lot when Carlisle Companies' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Carlisle Companies Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 346.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 246.16. Carlisle Companies after-hype prediction price | USD 345.15 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carlisle Companies to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Carlisle contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Carlisle Companies Incorporated will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.025% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Carlisle Companies trading at USD 346.1, that is roughly USD 0.0865 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Carlisle Companies' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Carlisle Companies Incorporated options at the current volatility level of 0.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Carlisle Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Carlisle Companies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Carlisle Companies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Carlisle Companies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Carlisle Companies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Carlisle Companies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Carlisle Companies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Carlisle. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Carlisle Companies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Carlisle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Carlisle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Carlisle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Carlisle Companies Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Carlisle Companies Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 346.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.10, mean absolute percentage error of 33.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 246.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Carlisle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Carlisle Companies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Carlisle Companies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Carlisle Companies | Carlisle Companies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Carlisle Companies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Carlisle Companies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Carlisle Companies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 344.38 and 347.99, respectively. We have considered Carlisle Companies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Carlisle Companies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Carlisle Companies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.7909 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.4208 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.1027 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0125 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 246.1615 |
Predictive Modules for Carlisle Companies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carlisle Companies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Carlisle Companies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Carlisle Companies After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Carlisle Companies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Carlisle Companies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Carlisle Companies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Carlisle Companies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Carlisle Companies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Carlisle Companies' historical news coverage. Carlisle Companies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 343.36 and 346.94, respectively. We have considered Carlisle Companies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Carlisle Companies is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Carlisle Companies is based on 3 months time horizon.
Carlisle Companies Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Carlisle Companies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Carlisle Companies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Carlisle Companies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.80 | 1.03 | 0.51 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
346.10 | 345.15 | 0.27 |
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Carlisle Companies Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Carlisle Companies is traded for 346.10. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.51. Carlisle is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 345.15. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 22.78%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.27%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Carlisle Companies is about 45.93%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 346.61. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.09. Carlisle Companies recorded earning per share (EPS) of 17.53. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 20th of March 2007. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carlisle Companies to cross-verify your projections.Carlisle Companies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Carlisle Companies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Carlisle Companies' future price movements. Getting to know how Carlisle Companies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Carlisle Companies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MAS | Masco | 3.48 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.51 | (2.29) | 7.82 | |
| BLDR | Builders FirstSource | 6.79 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.94 | (3.40) | 15.38 | |
| LII | Lennox International | 10.32 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.75 | (2.66) | 8.58 | |
| TXT | Textron | 2.42 | 7 per month | 1.52 | 0.05 | 2.26 | (1.64) | 4.67 | |
| ALLE | Allegion PLC | (0.32) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.18 | (2.06) | 5.10 | |
| ITT | ITT Inc | 0.14 | 10 per month | 1.83 | (0) | 1.76 | (2.11) | 17.49 | |
| OC | Owens Corning | 6.73 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.03 | (2.95) | 11.49 | |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corp | (1.27) | 10 per month | 1.22 | (0.05) | 2.52 | (1.98) | 6.45 | |
| WSO | Watsco Inc | 8.49 | 10 per month | 1.41 | 0.03 | 4.05 | (2.21) | 7.55 | |
| WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems | 2.41 | 9 per month | 1.23 | 0.02 | 3.31 | (2.33) | 11.59 |
Other Forecasting Options for Carlisle Companies
For every potential investor in Carlisle, whether a beginner or expert, Carlisle Companies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Carlisle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Carlisle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Carlisle Companies' price trends.Carlisle Companies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Carlisle Companies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Carlisle Companies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Carlisle Companies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Carlisle Companies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Carlisle Companies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Carlisle Companies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Carlisle Companies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Carlisle Companies Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0242 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.48) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 348.94 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 347.99 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 8.53 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (4.88) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.09) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 53.42 |
Carlisle Companies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Carlisle Companies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Carlisle Companies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting carlisle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Variance | 3.19 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.79 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.20) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Carlisle Companies
The number of cover stories for Carlisle Companies depends on current market conditions and Carlisle Companies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Carlisle Companies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Carlisle Companies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Carlisle Companies Short Properties
Carlisle Companies' future price predictability will typically decrease when Carlisle Companies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Carlisle Companies Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Carlisle Companies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carlisle Companies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 753.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Carlisle Companies to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Industrial Conglomerates space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carlisle Companies. Projected growth potential of Carlisle fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Carlisle Companies assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | Dividend Share 4.1 | Earnings Share 17.53 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.01 |
Investors evaluate Carlisle Companies using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Carlisle Companies' intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Carlisle Companies' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Carlisle Companies' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Carlisle Companies should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Carlisle Companies' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.