Dollar General Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

DG Stock  USD 138.93  2.11  1.54%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dollar General on the next trading day is expected to be 133.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 148.77. Dollar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Dollar General's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 6th of January 2026 The value of RSI of Dollar General's share price is above 80 suggesting that the stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 86

 Buy Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Dollar General's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Dollar General and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Dollar General's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Dollar General, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Dollar General's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.438
EPS Estimate Current Year
6.49
EPS Estimate Next Year
7.0687
Wall Street Target Price
133.0357
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.9306
Using Dollar General hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dollar General from the perspective of Dollar General response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Dollar General using Dollar General's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Dollar using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Dollar General's stock price.

Dollar General Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Dollar General's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Dollar. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Dollar General stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
106.0325
Short Percent
0.0562
Short Ratio
2.41
Shares Short Prior Month
11.6 M
50 Day MA
115.0106

Dollar General Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Dollar General's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Dollar. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Dollar can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Dollar General. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Dollar General's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Dollar General.

Dollar General Implied Volatility

    
  0.43  
Dollar General's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Dollar General stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Dollar General's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Dollar General stock will not fluctuate a lot when Dollar General's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dollar General on the next trading day is expected to be 133.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 148.77.

Dollar General after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 138.93  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dollar General to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Dollar Stock please use our How to Invest in Dollar General guide.At this time, Dollar General's Receivables Turnover is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The Dollar General's current Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 2.37, while Inventory Turnover is projected to decrease to 3.05. . The Dollar General's current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to increase to about 239.7 M, while Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is projected to decrease to roughly 1.1 B.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Dollar Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Dollar General's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Dollar General's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Dollar General stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Dollar General's open interest, investors have to compare it to Dollar General's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Dollar General is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Dollar. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Dollar General Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Dollar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dollar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dollar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Dollar General Cash Forecast

Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Dollar General's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1985-10-31
Previous Quarter
1.3 B
Current Value
1.2 B
Quarterly Volatility
424.6 M
 
Black Monday
 
Oil Shock
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Dollar General is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Dollar General value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Dollar General Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dollar General on the next trading day is expected to be 133.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.40, mean absolute percentage error of 10.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 148.77.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dollar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dollar General's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dollar General Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Dollar GeneralDollar General Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Dollar General Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Dollar General's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dollar General's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 130.52 and 135.91, respectively. We have considered Dollar General's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
138.93
130.52
Downside
133.22
Expected Value
135.91
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dollar General stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dollar General stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.2642
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.3996
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0211
SAESum of the absolute errors148.7743
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Dollar General. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Dollar General. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Dollar General

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dollar General. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
136.27138.93141.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
125.04151.26153.92
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
131.06136.17141.29
Details
31 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
121.06133.04147.67
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dollar General. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dollar General's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dollar General's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Dollar General.

Other Forecasting Options for Dollar General

For every potential investor in Dollar, whether a beginner or expert, Dollar General's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dollar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dollar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dollar General's price trends.

Dollar General Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dollar General stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dollar General could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dollar General by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dollar General Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dollar General's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dollar General's current price.

Dollar General Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dollar General stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dollar General shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dollar General stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Dollar General entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Dollar General Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dollar General's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dollar General's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dollar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dollar General to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Dollar Stock please use our How to Invest in Dollar General guide.
You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dollar General. If investors know Dollar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Dollar General listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.438
Dividend Share
2.36
Earnings Share
5.88
Revenue Per Share
191.417
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.046
The market value of Dollar General is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Dollar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Dollar General's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Dollar General's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Dollar General's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Dollar General's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Dollar General's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Dollar General is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dollar General's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.