DRDGOLD Limited Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| DRD Stock | USD 37.72 1.30 3.57% |
DRDGOLD Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast DRDGOLD Limited stock prices and determine the direction of DRDGOLD Limited ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of DRDGOLD Limited's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of rsi of DRDGOLD Limited's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using DRDGOLD Limited hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of DRDGOLD Limited ADR from the perspective of DRDGOLD Limited response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
DRDGOLD Limited after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DRDGOLD Limited to cross-verify your projections. DRDGOLD Limited Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine DRDGOLD price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for DRDGOLD using various technical indicators. When you analyze DRDGOLD charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
DRDGOLD Limited Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of DRDGOLD Limited ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 39.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85, mean absolute percentage error of 1.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DRDGOLD Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DRDGOLD Limited's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
DRDGOLD Limited Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest DRDGOLD Limited | DRDGOLD Limited Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
DRDGOLD Limited Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting DRDGOLD Limited's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. DRDGOLD Limited's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.27 and 42.72, respectively. We have considered DRDGOLD Limited's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DRDGOLD Limited stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DRDGOLD Limited stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.1641 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.853 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0286 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 52.0333 |
Predictive Modules for DRDGOLD Limited
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DRDGOLD Limited ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.DRDGOLD Limited After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of DRDGOLD Limited at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in DRDGOLD Limited or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of DRDGOLD Limited, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
DRDGOLD Limited Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting DRDGOLD Limited's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on DRDGOLD Limited's historical news coverage. DRDGOLD Limited's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 3.22, respectively. We have considered DRDGOLD Limited's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
DRDGOLD Limited is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of DRDGOLD Limited ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
DRDGOLD Limited Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as DRDGOLD Limited is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading DRDGOLD Limited backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with DRDGOLD Limited, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.72 | 3.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
37.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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DRDGOLD Limited Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of January DRDGOLD Limited ADR is traded for 37.72. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. DRDGOLD is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.72%. %. The volatility of related hype on DRDGOLD Limited is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.72. The company last dividend was issued on the 12th of September 2025. DRDGOLD Limited ADR had 1:10 split on the 23rd of July 2007. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DRDGOLD Limited to cross-verify your projections.DRDGOLD Limited Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to DRDGOLD Limited's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict DRDGOLD Limited's future price movements. Getting to know how DRDGOLD Limited's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how DRDGOLD Limited may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CGAU | Centerra Gold | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.60 | 0.27 | 5.00 | (2.88) | 14.92 | |
| ERO | Ero Copper Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.97 | 0.23 | 4.94 | (3.49) | 11.71 | |
| ARMN | Aris Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.12 | 0.33 | 8.12 | (3.63) | 14.02 | |
| CSTM | Constellium Nv | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.41 | 0.20 | 4.69 | (2.84) | 9.77 | |
| SA | Seabridge Gold | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.68 | 0.21 | 6.36 | (4.89) | 13.17 | |
| AAUC | Allied Gold | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.22 | 0.23 | 6.21 | (4.32) | 17.83 | |
| ASH | Ashland Global Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.31 | 0.14 | 4.54 | (2.64) | 13.67 | |
| ELVR | Sayona Mining Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.32 | 0.29 | 9.90 | (6.74) | 21.28 | |
| SID | Companhia Siderurgica Nacional | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.90 | 0.05 | 4.79 | (5.03) | 13.47 | |
| FSM | Fortuna Silver Mines | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.82 | 0.19 | 4.51 | (3.55) | 14.17 |
Other Forecasting Options for DRDGOLD Limited
For every potential investor in DRDGOLD, whether a beginner or expert, DRDGOLD Limited's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DRDGOLD Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DRDGOLD. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying DRDGOLD Limited's price trends.DRDGOLD Limited Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with DRDGOLD Limited stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of DRDGOLD Limited could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing DRDGOLD Limited by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
DRDGOLD Limited Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how DRDGOLD Limited stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading DRDGOLD Limited shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying DRDGOLD Limited stock market strength indicators, traders can identify DRDGOLD Limited ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
DRDGOLD Limited Risk Indicators
The analysis of DRDGOLD Limited's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DRDGOLD Limited's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting drdgold stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.52 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.74 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.22 | |||
| Variance | 10.39 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.73 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.84) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for DRDGOLD Limited
The number of cover stories for DRDGOLD Limited depends on current market conditions and DRDGOLD Limited's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that DRDGOLD Limited is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about DRDGOLD Limited's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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DRDGOLD Limited Short Properties
DRDGOLD Limited's future price predictability will typically decrease when DRDGOLD Limited's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of DRDGOLD Limited ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential DRDGOLD Limited's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. DRDGOLD Limited's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 86.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DRDGOLD Limited to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of DRDGOLD Limited. If investors know DRDGOLD will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about DRDGOLD Limited listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of DRDGOLD Limited ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of DRDGOLD that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of DRDGOLD Limited's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is DRDGOLD Limited's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because DRDGOLD Limited's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect DRDGOLD Limited's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between DRDGOLD Limited's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if DRDGOLD Limited is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, DRDGOLD Limited's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.