Dassault Aviation Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| DUAVF Stock | USD 380.00 1.46 0.38% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dassault Aviation SA on the next trading day is expected to be 390.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 399.23. Dassault Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Dassault Aviation's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Dassault Aviation's share price is below 20 suggesting that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Dassault Aviation hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dassault Aviation SA from the perspective of Dassault Aviation response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dassault Aviation SA on the next trading day is expected to be 390.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 399.23. Dassault Aviation after-hype prediction price | USD 381.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Dassault |
Dassault Aviation Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Dassault price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dassault using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dassault charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Dassault Aviation Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dassault Aviation SA on the next trading day is expected to be 390.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.54, mean absolute percentage error of 62.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 399.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dassault Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dassault Aviation's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Dassault Aviation Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Dassault Aviation | Dassault Aviation Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Dassault Aviation Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Dassault Aviation's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dassault Aviation's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 387.85 and 393.07, respectively. We have considered Dassault Aviation's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dassault Aviation pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dassault Aviation pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.2424 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.5447 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0198 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 399.2292 |
Predictive Modules for Dassault Aviation
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dassault Aviation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dassault Aviation's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Dassault Aviation After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Dassault Aviation at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dassault Aviation or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Dassault Aviation, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Dassault Aviation Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Dassault Aviation's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dassault Aviation's historical news coverage. Dassault Aviation's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 378.56 and 383.82, respectively. We have considered Dassault Aviation's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Dassault Aviation is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dassault Aviation is based on 3 months time horizon.
Dassault Aviation Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Dassault Aviation is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dassault Aviation backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dassault Aviation, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 2.61 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
380.00 | 381.19 | 0.05 |
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Dassault Aviation Hype Timeline
Dassault Aviation is currently traded for 380.00. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.27. Dassault is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 381.19 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price rise on the next news is estimated to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Dassault Aviation is about 304.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 379.73. The company reported the revenue of 7.25 B. Net Income was 605.39 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.39 B. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dassault Aviation to cross-verify your projections.Dassault Aviation Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Dassault Aviation's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dassault Aviation's future price movements. Getting to know how Dassault Aviation's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dassault Aviation may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Other Forecasting Options for Dassault Aviation
For every potential investor in Dassault, whether a beginner or expert, Dassault Aviation's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dassault Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dassault. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dassault Aviation's price trends.View Dassault Aviation Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Dassault Aviation Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dassault Aviation pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dassault Aviation shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dassault Aviation pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Dassault Aviation SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 380.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 380.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.73) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.46) |
Dassault Aviation Risk Indicators
The analysis of Dassault Aviation's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dassault Aviation's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dassault pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.61 | |||
| Variance | 6.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.49 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.65 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.35) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Dassault Aviation
The number of cover stories for Dassault Aviation depends on current market conditions and Dassault Aviation's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dassault Aviation is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dassault Aviation's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Dassault Pink Sheet
Dassault Aviation financial ratios help investors to determine whether Dassault Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Dassault with respect to the benefits of owning Dassault Aviation security.