ELF Beauty Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ELF Stock | USD 94.16 0.55 0.59% |
ELF Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ELF Beauty's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 26th of January 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of ELF Beauty's share price is approaching 49 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling ELF Beauty, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.85) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.0198 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.8575 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.4935 | Wall Street Target Price 112.4286 |
Using ELF Beauty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ELF Beauty from the perspective of ELF Beauty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ELF Beauty using ELF Beauty's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ELF using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ELF Beauty's stock price.
ELF Beauty Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in ELF Beauty's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards ELF. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of ELF Beauty stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 102.4274 | Short Percent 0.159 | Short Ratio 4.44 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.2 M | 50 Day MA 79.5392 |
ELF Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ELF Beauty on the next trading day is expected to be 94.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 172.60.ELF Beauty Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ELF Beauty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ELF. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ELF can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ELF Beauty. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ELF Beauty's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ELF Beauty.
ELF Beauty Implied Volatility | 0.82 |
ELF Beauty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ELF Beauty stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ELF Beauty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ELF Beauty stock will not fluctuate a lot when ELF Beauty's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ELF Beauty on the next trading day is expected to be 94.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 172.60. ELF Beauty after-hype prediction price | USD 94.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ELF Beauty to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ELF contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ELF Beauty will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0513% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With ELF Beauty trading at USD 94.16, that is roughly USD 0.0483 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ELF Beauty's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ELF Beauty options at the current volatility level of 0.82%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 ELF Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ELF Beauty's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ELF Beauty's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ELF Beauty stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ELF Beauty's open interest, investors have to compare it to ELF Beauty's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ELF Beauty is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ELF. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
ELF Beauty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ELF price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ELF using various technical indicators. When you analyze ELF charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ELF Beauty Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ELF Beauty on the next trading day is expected to be 94.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.93, mean absolute percentage error of 33.72, and the sum of the absolute errors of 172.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ELF Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ELF Beauty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ELF Beauty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ELF Beauty | ELF Beauty Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ELF Beauty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ELF Beauty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ELF Beauty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 89.69 and 100.21, respectively. We have considered ELF Beauty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ELF Beauty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ELF Beauty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.991 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.9255 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0367 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 172.6047 |
Predictive Modules for ELF Beauty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ELF Beauty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ELF Beauty After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ELF Beauty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ELF Beauty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ELF Beauty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ELF Beauty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ELF Beauty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ELF Beauty's historical news coverage. ELF Beauty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 88.91 and 99.41, respectively. We have considered ELF Beauty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ELF Beauty is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ELF Beauty is based on 3 months time horizon.
ELF Beauty Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ELF Beauty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ELF Beauty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ELF Beauty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.38 | 5.26 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 19 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 19 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
94.16 | 94.16 | 0.00 |
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ELF Beauty Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January ELF Beauty is traded for 94.16. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. ELF is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.38%. %. The volatility of related hype on ELF Beauty is about 2401.83%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 94.24. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of ELF Beauty was currently reported as 19.17. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.03. ELF Beauty had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 19 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ELF Beauty to cross-verify your projections.ELF Beauty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ELF Beauty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ELF Beauty's future price movements. Getting to know how ELF Beauty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ELF Beauty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TAL | TAL Education Group | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.32 | (2.99) | 14.18 | |
| INGR | Ingredion Incorporated | (0.54) | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.26 | (1.63) | 6.05 | |
| OLLI | Ollies Bargain Outlet | 0.49 | 24 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.30 | (2.82) | 10.10 | |
| POST | Post Holdings | (0.45) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.02 | (2.44) | 9.22 | |
| SFM | Sprouts Farmers Market | (2.75) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.16 | (3.68) | 26.63 | |
| CAG | ConAgra Foods | 0.49 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.29 | (2.53) | 7.20 | |
| DAR | Darling Ingredients | 0.64 | 11 per month | 1.61 | 0.16 | 4.56 | (3.21) | 17.16 | |
| COTY | Coty Inc | (0.10) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.61 | (4.00) | 9.89 | |
| LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | 3.87 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.78 | (3.56) | 10.38 | |
| SFD | Smithfield Foods Common | 0.49 | 10 per month | 1.02 | (0.01) | 2.15 | (1.60) | 8.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for ELF Beauty
For every potential investor in ELF, whether a beginner or expert, ELF Beauty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ELF Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ELF. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ELF Beauty's price trends.ELF Beauty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ELF Beauty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ELF Beauty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ELF Beauty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ELF Beauty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ELF Beauty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ELF Beauty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ELF Beauty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ELF Beauty entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ELF Beauty Risk Indicators
The analysis of ELF Beauty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ELF Beauty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting elf stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.12 | |||
| Variance | 26.17 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ELF Beauty
The number of cover stories for ELF Beauty depends on current market conditions and ELF Beauty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ELF Beauty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ELF Beauty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ELF Beauty Short Properties
ELF Beauty's future price predictability will typically decrease when ELF Beauty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ELF Beauty often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ELF Beauty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ELF Beauty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 58.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 148.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ELF Beauty to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in ELF Stock please use our How to Invest in ELF Beauty guide.You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Is Personal Care Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ELF Beauty. If investors know ELF will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ELF Beauty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.85) | Earnings Share 1.4 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.142 | Return On Assets |
The market value of ELF Beauty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ELF that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ELF Beauty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ELF Beauty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ELF Beauty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ELF Beauty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ELF Beauty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ELF Beauty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ELF Beauty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.