EPAM Systems Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| EPAM Stock | USD 244.34 0.88 0.36% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of EPAM Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 241.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 378.55. EPAM Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although EPAM Systems' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of EPAM Systems' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of EPAM Systems fundamentals over time.
EPAM |
EPAM Systems Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the EPAM Systems' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2009-12-31 | Previous Quarter 1.8 B | Current Value 2 B | Quarterly Volatility 639.3 M |
EPAM Systems Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of EPAM Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 241.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.21, mean absolute percentage error of 67.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 378.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict EPAM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that EPAM Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
EPAM Systems Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest EPAM Systems | EPAM Systems Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
EPAM Systems Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting EPAM Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. EPAM Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 238.89 and 243.97, respectively. We have considered EPAM Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of EPAM Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent EPAM Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.3157 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.2058 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0298 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 378.554 |
Predictive Modules for EPAM Systems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as EPAM Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for EPAM Systems
For every potential investor in EPAM, whether a beginner or expert, EPAM Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. EPAM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in EPAM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying EPAM Systems' price trends.EPAM Systems Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with EPAM Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of EPAM Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing EPAM Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
EPAM Systems Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of EPAM Systems' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of EPAM Systems' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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EPAM Systems Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how EPAM Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading EPAM Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying EPAM Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify EPAM Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
EPAM Systems Risk Indicators
The analysis of EPAM Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in EPAM Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting epam stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.53 | |||
| Variance | 6.4 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.55 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.69 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of EPAM Systems to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in EPAM Stock, please use our How to Invest in EPAM Systems guide.You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Is IT Consulting & Other Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of EPAM Systems. If investors know EPAM will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about EPAM Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.436 | Earnings Share 7.7 | Revenue Per Share 80.605 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.013 | Return On Assets 0.0833 |
The market value of EPAM Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of EPAM that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of EPAM Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is EPAM Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because EPAM Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect EPAM Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between EPAM Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if EPAM Systems is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, EPAM Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.