Expedia Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

EXPE Stock  USD 265.76  0.98  0.37%   
Expedia Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Expedia stock prices and determine the direction of Expedia Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Expedia's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Expedia's share price is approaching 48 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Expedia, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 48

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Expedia's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Expedia and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Expedia's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Expedia Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Expedia's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.454
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.7356
EPS Estimate Current Year
15.2085
EPS Estimate Next Year
17.9567
Wall Street Target Price
288.3824
Using Expedia hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Expedia Group from the perspective of Expedia response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Expedia using Expedia's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Expedia using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Expedia's stock price.

Expedia Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Expedia's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Expedia. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Expedia stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
212.0358
Short Percent
0.0691
Short Ratio
4.31
Shares Short Prior Month
M
50 Day MA
274.3524

Expedia Relative Strength Index

The Simple Regression forecasted value of Expedia Group on the next trading day is expected to be 296.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 793.13.

Expedia Group Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Expedia's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Expedia. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Expedia can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Expedia Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Expedia's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Expedia.

Expedia Implied Volatility

    
  0.55  
Expedia's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Expedia Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Expedia's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Expedia stock will not fluctuate a lot when Expedia's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Expedia Group on the next trading day is expected to be 296.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 793.13.

Expedia after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 266.03  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Expedia to cross-verify your projections.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Expedia contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Expedia Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0344% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Expedia trading at USD 265.76, that is roughly USD 0.0914 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Expedia's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Expedia Group options at the current volatility level of 0.55%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Expedia Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Expedia's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Expedia's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Expedia stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Expedia's open interest, investors have to compare it to Expedia's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Expedia is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Expedia. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Expedia Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Expedia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Expedia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Expedia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Expedia price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Expedia Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Expedia Group on the next trading day is expected to be 296.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.00, mean absolute percentage error of 240.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 793.13.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Expedia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Expedia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Expedia Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Expedia  Expedia Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Expedia Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Expedia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Expedia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 293.54 and 299.97, respectively. We have considered Expedia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
265.76
293.54
Downside
296.76
Expected Value
299.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Expedia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Expedia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.5949
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation13.0021
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0498
SAESum of the absolute errors793.1308
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Expedia Group historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Expedia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Expedia Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
262.82266.03269.24
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
239.18283.94287.15
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
261.65284.07306.49
Details
37 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
262.43288.38320.10
Details

Expedia After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Expedia at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Expedia or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Expedia, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Expedia Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Expedia's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Expedia's historical news coverage. Expedia's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 262.82 and 269.24, respectively. We have considered Expedia's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
265.76
262.82
Downside
266.03
After-hype Price
269.24
Upside
Expedia is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Expedia Group is based on 3 months time horizon.

Expedia Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Expedia is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Expedia backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Expedia, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.36 
3.21
  0.27 
  0.79 
9 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
265.76
266.03
0.10 
433.78  
Notes

Expedia Hype Timeline

Expedia Group is currently traded for 265.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.27, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.79. Expedia is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 266.03 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Expedia is about 146.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 266.55. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 13.69 B. Net Income was 1.22 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 12.92 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Expedia to cross-verify your projections.

Expedia Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Expedia's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Expedia's future price movements. Getting to know how Expedia's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Expedia may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
VIKViking Holdings(0.19)10 per month 1.52  0.08  3.76 (2.41) 8.50 
WSMWilliams Sonoma 5.15 8 per month 1.74  0.04  3.63 (2.83) 7.84 
TSCOTractor Supply(0.61)7 per month 0.00 (0.06) 2.42 (2.17) 5.34 
ULTAUlta Beauty 13.14 11 per month 1.28  0.11  2.71 (2.29) 16.26 
GELHYGeely Automobile Holdings 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.20) 2.40 (2.76) 6.06 
IHGInterContinental Hotels Group(0.19)6 per month 1.04  0.06  2.69 (2.04) 7.94 
PHMPulteGroup 2.40 9 per month 1.39 (0.01) 5.00 (2.19) 9.97 
QSRRestaurant Brands International 0.50 10 per month 1.03 (0.05) 2.13 (1.84) 6.22 
ROLRollins 0.13 11 per month 1.08  0.07  1.80 (1.68) 11.46 
DRIDarden Restaurants 1.62 11 per month 1.42  0.02  3.26 (2.51) 8.67 

Other Forecasting Options for Expedia

For every potential investor in Expedia, whether a beginner or expert, Expedia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Expedia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Expedia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Expedia's price trends.

Expedia Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Expedia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Expedia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Expedia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Expedia Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Expedia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Expedia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Expedia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Expedia Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Expedia Risk Indicators

The analysis of Expedia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Expedia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting expedia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Expedia

The number of cover stories for Expedia depends on current market conditions and Expedia's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Expedia is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Expedia's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Expedia Short Properties

Expedia's future price predictability will typically decrease when Expedia's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Expedia Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Expedia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Expedia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding137.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments4.5 B
When determining whether Expedia Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze Expedia's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Expedia's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Expedia Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Expedia to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Will Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines sector continue expanding? Could Expedia diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Expedia. Projected growth potential of Expedia fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Expedia data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.454
Dividend Share
1.2
Earnings Share
10.38
Revenue Per Share
113.309
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.087
The market value of Expedia Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Expedia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Expedia's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Expedia's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Expedia's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Expedia's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Expedia's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Expedia should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Expedia's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.