National Vision Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| EYE Stock | USD 26.40 0.02 0.08% |
National Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast National Vision stock prices and determine the direction of National Vision Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of National Vision's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the value of RSI of National Vision's share price is approaching 45 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling National Vision, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using National Vision hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Vision Holdings from the perspective of National Vision response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of National Vision Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 28.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.43. National Vision after-hype prediction price | USD 25.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Vision to cross-verify your projections. National Vision Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
National Vision Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of National Vision Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 28.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.40, mean absolute percentage error of 2.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Vision's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Vision Stock Forecast Pattern
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National Vision Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Vision's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Vision's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.55 and 30.85, respectively. We have considered National Vision's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Vision stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Vision stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9774 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4004 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0523 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 85.4267 |
Predictive Modules for National Vision
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Vision Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Vision's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
National Vision After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National Vision at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Vision or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National Vision, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National Vision Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National Vision's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Vision's historical news coverage. National Vision's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.23 and 28.57, respectively. We have considered National Vision's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National Vision is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Vision Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
National Vision Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Vision is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Vision backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Vision, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 2.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
26.40 | 25.90 | 0.04 |
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National Vision Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January National Vision Holdings is traded for 26.40. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. National is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 25.9 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. The volatility of related hype on National Vision is about 6625.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.40. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.82 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (28.5 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.13 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Vision to cross-verify your projections.National Vision Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National Vision's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Vision's future price movements. Getting to know how National Vision's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Vision may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NEGG | Newegg Commerce | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 9.43 | (8.42) | 37.88 | |
| SAH | Sonic Automotive | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.83 | (3.06) | 7.72 | |
| PHIN | PHINIA Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.84 | 0.27 | 3.13 | (1.46) | 6.35 | |
| RVLV | Revolve Group LLC | 0.79 | 11 per month | 2.25 | 0.12 | 6.43 | (3.71) | 16.41 | |
| AMBP | Ardagh Metal Packaging | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.75 | 0.16 | 3.35 | (3.21) | 10.21 | |
| ADNT | Adient PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.13 | (5.12) | 21.07 | |
| GT | Goodyear Tire Rubber | (0.39) | 7 per month | 1.32 | 0.18 | 6.02 | (2.47) | 11.63 | |
| SBET | Sharplink Gaming | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.07 | (9.51) | 19.15 | |
| UAA | Under Armour A | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.00 | 0.17 | 4.98 | (3.86) | 13.53 | |
| SBH | Sally Beauty Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.74 | (0.01) | 4.28 | (4.37) | 11.38 |
Other Forecasting Options for National Vision
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Vision's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Vision's price trends.National Vision Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Vision stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Vision could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Vision by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Vision Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Vision stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Vision shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Vision stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Vision Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
National Vision Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Vision's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Vision's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.65 | |||
| Variance | 7.01 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for National Vision
The number of cover stories for National Vision depends on current market conditions and National Vision's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Vision is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Vision's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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National Vision Short Properties
National Vision's future price predictability will typically decrease when National Vision's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National Vision Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National Vision's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Vision's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 78.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 73.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Vision to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Is Other Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Vision. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Vision listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of National Vision Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Vision's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Vision's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Vision's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Vision's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Vision's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Vision is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Vision's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.