FirstCash Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FCFS Stock | USD 168.33 0.67 0.40% |
FirstCash Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength indicator of FirstCash's share price is at 58. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling FirstCash, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.292 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.3671 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.6386 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.0771 | Wall Street Target Price 183.3333 |
Using FirstCash hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FirstCash from the perspective of FirstCash response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards FirstCash using FirstCash's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards FirstCash using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of FirstCash's stock price.
FirstCash Short Interest
An investor who is long FirstCash may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about FirstCash and may potentially protect profits, hedge FirstCash with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 144.2661 | Short Percent 0.0155 | Short Ratio 2.24 | Shares Short Prior Month 535 K | 50 Day MA 161.3558 |
FirstCash Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FirstCash on the next trading day is expected to be 168.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 146.02.FirstCash Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to FirstCash's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in FirstCash. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding FirstCash can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around FirstCash. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of FirstCash's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about FirstCash.
FirstCash Implied Volatility | 0.47 |
FirstCash's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of FirstCash stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if FirstCash's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that FirstCash stock will not fluctuate a lot when FirstCash's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FirstCash on the next trading day is expected to be 168.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 146.02. FirstCash after-hype prediction price | USD 167.79 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
FirstCash | Build AI portfolio with FirstCash Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current FirstCash contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that FirstCash will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0294% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With FirstCash trading at USD 168.33, that is roughly USD 0.0494 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating FirstCash's daily price movement you should consider acquiring FirstCash options at the current volatility level of 0.47%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 FirstCash Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast FirstCash's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in FirstCash's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for FirstCash stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current FirstCash's open interest, investors have to compare it to FirstCash's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of FirstCash is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in FirstCash. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
FirstCash Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine FirstCash price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FirstCash using various technical indicators. When you analyze FirstCash charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
FirstCash Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FirstCash on the next trading day is expected to be 168.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.47, mean absolute percentage error of 11.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 146.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FirstCash Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FirstCash's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
FirstCash Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FirstCash | FirstCash Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
FirstCash Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting FirstCash's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FirstCash's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 166.36 and 169.98, respectively. We have considered FirstCash's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FirstCash stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FirstCash stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.5057 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.475 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0155 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 146.0231 |
Predictive Modules for FirstCash
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FirstCash. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.FirstCash After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of FirstCash at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FirstCash or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of FirstCash, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
FirstCash Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting FirstCash's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FirstCash's historical news coverage. FirstCash's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 165.98 and 169.60, respectively. We have considered FirstCash's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
FirstCash is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FirstCash is based on 3 months time horizon.
FirstCash Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as FirstCash is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FirstCash backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FirstCash, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 1.81 | 0.54 | 0.18 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
168.33 | 167.79 | 0.32 |
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FirstCash Hype Timeline
FirstCash is currently traded for 168.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.54, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.18. FirstCash is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 167.79. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 77.02%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.32%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.23%. The volatility of related hype on FirstCash is about 232.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 168.51. About 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of FirstCash was currently reported as 49.84. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.28. FirstCash recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.91. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 22nd of February 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FirstCash to cross-verify your projections.FirstCash Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to FirstCash's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FirstCash's future price movements. Getting to know how FirstCash's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FirstCash may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SLM | SLM Corp | (0.62) | 8 per month | 3.19 | (0) | 3.45 | (3.17) | 20.19 | |
| OMF | OneMain Holdings | 1.08 | 8 per month | 1.67 | 0.1 | 3.48 | (2.89) | 12.22 | |
| OBDC | Blue Owl Capital | 0.06 | 10 per month | 1.39 | (0.04) | 2.03 | (1.69) | 7.35 | |
| SYF | Synchrony Financial | 0.37 | 8 per month | 2.12 | 0.01 | 2.67 | (2.25) | 12.73 | |
| HLNE | Hamilton Lane | 0.74 | 12 per month | 1.39 | 0.13 | 3.12 | (2.49) | 9.90 | |
| VOYA | Voya Financial | (0.79) | 8 per month | 1.47 | (0.01) | 2.25 | (1.78) | 8.14 | |
| CACC | Credit Acceptance | 7.11 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.97 | (5.96) | 12.77 | |
| IX | Orix Corp Ads | (0.03) | 6 per month | 0.88 | 0.16 | 1.83 | (1.66) | 7.42 | |
| JSM | Navient SR | 0.02 | 6 per month | 0.71 | (0.06) | 1.31 | (1.48) | 3.31 | |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners | (0.17) | 6 per month | 1.51 | 0.04 | 2.99 | (2.01) | 8.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for FirstCash
For every potential investor in FirstCash, whether a beginner or expert, FirstCash's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FirstCash Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FirstCash. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FirstCash's price trends.FirstCash Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FirstCash stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FirstCash could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FirstCash by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FirstCash Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FirstCash stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FirstCash shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FirstCash stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FirstCash entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 168.33 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 168.33 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.33) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.67) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 58.12 |
FirstCash Risk Indicators
The analysis of FirstCash's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FirstCash's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting firstcash stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Variance | 3.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.15) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FirstCash
The number of cover stories for FirstCash depends on current market conditions and FirstCash's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FirstCash is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FirstCash's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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FirstCash Short Properties
FirstCash's future price predictability will typically decrease when FirstCash's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of FirstCash often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential FirstCash's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FirstCash's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 45 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 175.1 M |
Additional Tools for FirstCash Stock Analysis
When running FirstCash's price analysis, check to measure FirstCash's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FirstCash is operating at the current time. Most of FirstCash's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FirstCash's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FirstCash's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FirstCash to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.