First Foundation Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| FFWM Stock | USD 6.23 0.16 2.50% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of First Foundation on the next trading day is expected to be 6.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.80. First Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although First Foundation's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of First Foundation's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of First Foundation fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of First Foundation's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 7 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.05 | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.76) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.28 | Wall Street Target Price 6.75 |
Using First Foundation hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Foundation from the perspective of First Foundation response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards First Foundation using First Foundation's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards First using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of First Foundation's stock price.
First Foundation Short Interest
An investor who is long First Foundation may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about First Foundation and may potentially protect profits, hedge First Foundation with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 5.4697 | Short Percent 0.048 | Short Ratio 5.84 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.7 M | 50 Day MA 5.7866 |
First Foundation Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to First Foundation's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in First. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding First can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around First Foundation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
First Foundation Implied Volatility | 2.15 |
First Foundation's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of First Foundation stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if First Foundation's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that First Foundation stock will not fluctuate a lot when First Foundation's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of First Foundation on the next trading day is expected to be 6.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.80. First Foundation after-hype prediction price | USD 6.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Foundation to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 First Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast First Foundation's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in First Foundation's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for First Foundation stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current First Foundation's open interest, investors have to compare it to First Foundation's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of First Foundation is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in First. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
First Foundation Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Foundation Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of First Foundation on the next trading day is expected to be 6.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Foundation's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Foundation Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Foundation | First Foundation Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Foundation Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Foundation's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Foundation's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.25 and 8.67, respectively. We have considered First Foundation's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Foundation stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Foundation stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2691 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1934 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0347 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.7956 |
Predictive Modules for First Foundation
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Foundation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Foundation's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Foundation After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Foundation at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Foundation or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Foundation, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Foundation Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Foundation's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Foundation's historical news coverage. First Foundation's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.00 and 8.42, respectively. We have considered First Foundation's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Foundation is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Foundation is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Foundation Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Foundation is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Foundation backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Foundation, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 2.21 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.23 | 6.21 | 0.32 |
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First Foundation Hype Timeline
First Foundation is currently traded for 6.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. First is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 6.21. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.32%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on First Foundation is about 1163.16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.28. About 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.63. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Foundation has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.8. The entity recorded a loss per share of 1.9. The firm last dividend was issued on the 3rd of May 2024. First Foundation had 2:1 split on the 19th of January 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Foundation to cross-verify your projections.First Foundation Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Foundation's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Foundation's future price movements. Getting to know how First Foundation's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Foundation may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PFIS | Peoples Fin | (0.39) | 8 per month | 1.36 | 0.08 | 3.04 | (2.13) | 7.95 | |
| NRIM | Northrim BanCorp | (0.08) | 9 per month | 0.94 | 0.25 | 4.71 | (2.28) | 8.49 | |
| FFIC | Flushing Financial | (0.11) | 11 per month | 1.76 | 0.14 | 4.33 | (1.78) | 15.71 | |
| CBNK | Capital Bancorp | 0.06 | 6 per month | 1.07 | (0) | 2.88 | (1.80) | 6.99 | |
| NFBK | Northfield Bancorp | (0.15) | 10 per month | 1.28 | 0.08 | 3.61 | (2.44) | 7.76 | |
| BHB | Bar Harbor Bankshares | 0.28 | 8 per month | 1.32 | 0.12 | 3.58 | (2.17) | 8.17 | |
| ACNB | ACNB Corporation | (0.28) | 8 per month | 1.05 | 0.11 | 2.50 | (2.06) | 6.18 | |
| MSBI | Midland States Bancorp | 0.76 | 8 per month | 1.57 | 0.22 | 6.49 | (1.71) | 14.42 | |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp | 1.95 | 12 per month | 1.35 | 0.06 | 3.47 | (2.87) | 7.52 | |
| BWB | Bridgewater Bancshares | (0.14) | 10 per month | 1.18 | 0.05 | 3.50 | (2.33) | 6.37 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Foundation
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Foundation's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Foundation's price trends.First Foundation Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Foundation stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Foundation could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Foundation by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Foundation Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Foundation stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Foundation shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Foundation stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Foundation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6.23 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6.23 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.08) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.16) |
First Foundation Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Foundation's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Foundation's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Variance | 4.6 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.08 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.31 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.14) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Foundation
The number of cover stories for First Foundation depends on current market conditions and First Foundation's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Foundation is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Foundation's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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First Foundation Short Properties
First Foundation's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Foundation's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Foundation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Foundation's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Foundation's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 65.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Foundation to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in First Stock, please use our How to Invest in First Foundation guide.You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Foundation. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Foundation listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 7 | Earnings Share (1.90) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.16) | Return On Assets |
The market value of First Foundation is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Foundation's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Foundation's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Foundation's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Foundation's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Foundation's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Foundation is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Foundation's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.