Flagstar Financial Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FLG Stock | 12.91 0.37 2.79% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Flagstar Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 12.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.16. Flagstar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Flagstar Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Flagstar Financial's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.039 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.42) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.6077 | Wall Street Target Price 14.1324 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.07) |
Using Flagstar Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Flagstar Financial from the perspective of Flagstar Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Flagstar Financial using Flagstar Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Flagstar using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Flagstar Financial's stock price.
Flagstar Financial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Flagstar Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Flagstar. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Flagstar Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 11.8358 | Short Percent 0.2245 | Short Ratio 12.11 | Shares Short Prior Month 56.4 M | 50 Day MA 12.3634 |
Flagstar Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Flagstar Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Flagstar. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Flagstar can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Flagstar Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Flagstar Financial Implied Volatility | 0.46 |
Flagstar Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Flagstar Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Flagstar Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Flagstar Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Flagstar Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Flagstar Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 12.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.16. Flagstar Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 13.12 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Flagstar Financial to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Flagstar contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Flagstar Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0288% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Flagstar Financial trading at USD 12.91, that is roughly USD 0.003712 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Flagstar Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Flagstar Financial options at the current volatility level of 0.46%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Flagstar Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Flagstar Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Flagstar Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Flagstar Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Flagstar Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Flagstar Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Flagstar Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Flagstar. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Flagstar Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Flagstar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Flagstar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Flagstar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Flagstar Financial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Flagstar Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 12.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Flagstar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Flagstar Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Flagstar Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Flagstar Financial | Flagstar Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Flagstar Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Flagstar Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Flagstar Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.01 and 14.81, respectively. We have considered Flagstar Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Flagstar Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Flagstar Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.3292 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0173 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1693 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0138 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.16 |
Predictive Modules for Flagstar Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Flagstar Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Flagstar Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Flagstar Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Flagstar Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Flagstar Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Flagstar Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Flagstar Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Flagstar Financial's historical news coverage. Flagstar Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.26 and 14.98, respectively. We have considered Flagstar Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Flagstar Financial is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Flagstar Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Flagstar Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Flagstar Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Flagstar Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Flagstar Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 1.90 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
12.91 | 13.12 | 0.23 |
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Flagstar Financial Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Flagstar Financial is traded for 12.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Flagstar is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 13.12. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.23%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.16%. The volatility of related hype on Flagstar Financial is about 618.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.96. About 91.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.73. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Flagstar Financial has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.47. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.89. The firm last dividend was issued on the 5th of December 2025. Flagstar Financial had 1:3 split on the 12th of July 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Flagstar Financial to cross-verify your projections.Flagstar Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Flagstar Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Flagstar Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Flagstar Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Flagstar Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GBCI | Glacier Bancorp | 1.59 | 8 per month | 1.42 | 0.06 | 3.25 | (1.80) | 8.19 | |
| IFS | Intercorp Financial Services | (0.16) | 10 per month | 1.39 | 0.08 | 3.68 | (2.88) | 5.62 | |
| AUB | Atlantic Union Bankshares | 0.11 | 38 per month | 1.11 | 0.09 | 3.79 | (1.90) | 7.22 | |
| HWC | Hancock Whitney Corp | (0.42) | 10 per month | 0.64 | 0.19 | 2.85 | (1.12) | 6.52 | |
| AX | Axos Financial | 1.27 | 13 per month | 1.13 | 0.17 | 3.18 | (2.33) | 7.14 | |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | (0.12) | 10 per month | 0.88 | 0.11 | 2.71 | (1.78) | 5.90 | |
| AVAL | Grupo Aval | (0.01) | 9 per month | 1.47 | 0.13 | 2.79 | (2.90) | 7.37 | |
| UBSI | United Bankshares | (0.32) | 9 per month | 0.83 | 0.14 | 3.05 | (1.84) | 8.03 | |
| OZK | Bank Ozk | 1.07 | 11 per month | 1.09 | (0.02) | 2.43 | (1.53) | 6.11 | |
| FFIN | First Financial Bankshares | 0.06 | 8 per month | 1.11 | 0.01 | 2.50 | (1.75) | 6.37 |
Other Forecasting Options for Flagstar Financial
For every potential investor in Flagstar, whether a beginner or expert, Flagstar Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Flagstar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Flagstar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Flagstar Financial's price trends.Flagstar Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Flagstar Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Flagstar Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Flagstar Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Flagstar Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Flagstar Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Flagstar Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Flagstar Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Flagstar Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 135058.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.86) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.07 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.01 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.34) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.37) |
Flagstar Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Flagstar Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Flagstar Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting flagstar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Variance | 3.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.53 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.69) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Flagstar Financial
The number of cover stories for Flagstar Financial depends on current market conditions and Flagstar Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Flagstar Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Flagstar Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Flagstar Financial Short Properties
Flagstar Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Flagstar Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Flagstar Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Flagstar Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Flagstar Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 330.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 25.8 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Flagstar Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Flagstar Stock please use our How to Invest in Flagstar Financial guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Flagstar Financial. If investors know Flagstar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Flagstar Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Dividend Share 0.04 | Earnings Share (0.89) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.262 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Flagstar Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Flagstar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Flagstar Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Flagstar Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Flagstar Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Flagstar Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Flagstar Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Flagstar Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Flagstar Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.