Farmers Merchants Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

FMAO Stock  USD 33.52  0.48  1.45%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Farmers Merchants Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 33.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.31. Farmers Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Farmers Merchants' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Farmers Merchants' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Farmers Merchants fundamentals over time.
  
As of the 30th of November 2024, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 9.60, while Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop 1.61. . As of the 30th of November 2024, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 39.3 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop about 9.9 M.
Farmers Merchants simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Farmers Merchants Bancorp are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Farmers Merchants Bancorp prices get older.

Farmers Merchants Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Farmers Merchants Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 33.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.31.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Farmers Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Farmers Merchants' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Farmers Merchants Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Farmers MerchantsFarmers Merchants Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Farmers Merchants Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Farmers Merchants' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Farmers Merchants' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.21 and 35.83, respectively. We have considered Farmers Merchants' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
33.52
33.52
Expected Value
35.83
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Farmers Merchants stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Farmers Merchants stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.3219
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1218
MADMean absolute deviation0.4313
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0149
SAESum of the absolute errors26.31
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Farmers Merchants Bancorp forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Farmers Merchants observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Farmers Merchants

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Farmers Merchants Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
31.2833.5935.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.4826.7936.87
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
31.5532.6533.75
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
20.0222.0024.42
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Farmers Merchants. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Farmers Merchants' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Farmers Merchants' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Farmers Merchants Bancorp.

Other Forecasting Options for Farmers Merchants

For every potential investor in Farmers, whether a beginner or expert, Farmers Merchants' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Farmers Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Farmers. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Farmers Merchants' price trends.

Farmers Merchants Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Farmers Merchants stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Farmers Merchants could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Farmers Merchants by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Farmers Merchants Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Farmers Merchants' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Farmers Merchants' current price.

Farmers Merchants Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Farmers Merchants stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Farmers Merchants shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Farmers Merchants stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Farmers Merchants Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Farmers Merchants Risk Indicators

The analysis of Farmers Merchants' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Farmers Merchants' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting farmers stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Farmers Merchants

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Farmers Merchants position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Farmers Merchants will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Farmers Stock

  0.96AX Axos FinancialPairCorr
  0.96BY Byline Bancorp Fiscal Year End 23rd of January 2025 PairCorr

Moving against Farmers Stock

  0.59CFG-PE Citizens FinancialPairCorr
  0.55TFC-PO Truist FinancialPairCorr
  0.53TFC-PR Truist FinancialPairCorr
  0.33WF Woori Financial GroupPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Farmers Merchants could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Farmers Merchants when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Farmers Merchants - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Farmers Merchants Bancorp to buy it.
The correlation of Farmers Merchants is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Farmers Merchants moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Farmers Merchants Bancorp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Farmers Merchants can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Farmers Merchants Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Farmers Merchants' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Farmers Merchants Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Farmers Merchants Bancorp Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Farmers Merchants to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Farmers Merchants. If investors know Farmers will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Farmers Merchants listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.36
Dividend Share
0.881
Earnings Share
1.69
Revenue Per Share
7.25
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.113
The market value of Farmers Merchants Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Farmers that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Farmers Merchants' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Farmers Merchants' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Farmers Merchants' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Farmers Merchants' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Farmers Merchants' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Farmers Merchants is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Farmers Merchants' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.