Forestar Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FOR Stock | USD 25.30 0.40 1.56% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Forestar Group on the next trading day is expected to be 25.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.74. Forestar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the value of RSI of Forestar's share price is approaching 47. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Forestar, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Forestar hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Forestar Group from the perspective of Forestar response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Forestar Group on the next trading day is expected to be 25.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.74. Forestar after-hype prediction price | USD 25.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Forestar to cross-verify your projections. Forestar Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Forestar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Forestar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Forestar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forestar Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Forestar Group on the next trading day is expected to be 25.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Forestar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Forestar's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Forestar Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Forestar | Forestar Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Forestar Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Forestar's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Forestar's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.71 and 27.89, respectively. We have considered Forestar's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Forestar stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Forestar stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4595 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.016 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4957 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0192 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.74 |
Predictive Modules for Forestar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Forestar Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Forestar After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Forestar at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Forestar or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Forestar, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Forestar Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Forestar's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Forestar's historical news coverage. Forestar's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.71 and 27.89, respectively. We have considered Forestar's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Forestar is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Forestar Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Forestar Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Forestar is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Forestar backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Forestar, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 2.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
25.30 | 25.30 | 0.00 |
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Forestar Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of January Forestar Group is traded for 25.30. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Forestar is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Forestar is about 2105.69%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.30. About 62.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.74. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Forestar Group had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Forestar to cross-verify your projections.Forestar Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Forestar's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Forestar's future price movements. Getting to know how Forestar's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Forestar may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KREF | KKR Real Estate | 0.07 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.67 | (2.77) | 6.97 | |
| EFC | Ellington Financial | (0.10) | 4 per month | 0.81 | 0.03 | 1.27 | (1.32) | 6.68 | |
| ARI | Apollo Commercial Real | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.08 | (0.09) | 1.95 | (1.72) | 4.99 | |
| SDHC | Smith Douglas Homes | (0.30) | 10 per month | 3.21 | 0.08 | 6.93 | (5.24) | 18.62 | |
| IIPR | Innovative Industrial Properties | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.37 | (0.04) | 4.46 | (3.84) | 14.66 | |
| VRE | Veris Residential | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.25 | (2.46) | 5.70 | |
| LADR | Ladder Capital Corp | (0.10) | 12 per month | 1.02 | (0.03) | 1.74 | (1.54) | 4.94 | |
| SILA | Sila Realty Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | (0.05) | 1.84 | (1.88) | 5.45 | |
| HOUS | Anywhere Real Estate | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.36 | 0.24 | 7.75 | (3.45) | 14.45 | |
| HBNB | Hotel101 Global Holdings | (0.80) | 4 per month | 5.11 | 0.24 | 16.97 | (9.49) | 41.07 |
Other Forecasting Options for Forestar
For every potential investor in Forestar, whether a beginner or expert, Forestar's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Forestar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Forestar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Forestar's price trends.Forestar Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Forestar stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Forestar could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Forestar by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Forestar Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Forestar stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Forestar shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Forestar stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Forestar Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 6098.67 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.40) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 25.73 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 25.59 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.63) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.40) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.05 |
Forestar Risk Indicators
The analysis of Forestar's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Forestar's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting forestar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.59 | |||
| Variance | 6.72 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Forestar
The number of cover stories for Forestar depends on current market conditions and Forestar's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Forestar is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Forestar's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Forestar Short Properties
Forestar's future price predictability will typically decrease when Forestar's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Forestar Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Forestar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Forestar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 50.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 379.2 M |
Additional Tools for Forestar Stock Analysis
When running Forestar's price analysis, check to measure Forestar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Forestar is operating at the current time. Most of Forestar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Forestar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Forestar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Forestar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.