Five Point Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FPH Stock | USD 5.61 0.04 0.71% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Five Point Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 5.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.69. Five Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Five Point's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 24th of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Five Point's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.233 | Wall Street Target Price 12 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.21) |
Using Five Point hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Five Point Holdings from the perspective of Five Point response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Five Point using Five Point's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Five using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Five Point's stock price.
Five Point Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Five Point's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Five. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Five Point stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 5.6646 | Short Percent 0.0064 | Short Ratio 3.28 | Shares Short Prior Month 461.6 K | 50 Day MA 6.007 |
Five Point Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Five Point's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Five. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Five can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Five Point Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Five Point Implied Volatility | 0.95 |
Five Point's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Five Point Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Five Point's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Five Point stock will not fluctuate a lot when Five Point's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Five Point Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 5.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.69. Five Point after-hype prediction price | USD 5.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Five Point to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Five Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Five Point's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Five Point's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Five Point stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Five Point's open interest, investors have to compare it to Five Point's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Five Point is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Five. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Five Point Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Five price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Five using various technical indicators. When you analyze Five charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Five Point Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Five Point's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2014-03-31 | Previous Quarter 456.6 M | Current Value 351.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 208 M |
Five Point Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Five Point Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 5.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Five Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Five Point's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Five Point Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Five Point | Five Point Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Five Point Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Five Point's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Five Point's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.71 and 6.84, respectively. We have considered Five Point's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Five Point stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Five Point stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.164 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0756 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.013 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.6851 |
Predictive Modules for Five Point
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Five Point Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Five Point After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Five Point at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Five Point or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Five Point, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Five Point Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Five Point's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Five Point's historical news coverage. Five Point's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.15 and 7.29, respectively. We have considered Five Point's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Five Point is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Five Point Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Five Point Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Five Point is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Five Point backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Five Point, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.57 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 12 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.61 | 5.72 | 1.96 |
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Five Point Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January Five Point Holdings is traded for 5.61. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Five is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 5.72 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 126.61%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.96%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Five Point is about 1539.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.62. The company reported the last year's revenue of 237.93 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 177.63 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 82.64 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Five Point to cross-verify your projections.Five Point Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Five Point's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Five Point's future price movements. Getting to know how Five Point's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Five Point may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NREF | Nexpoint Real Estate | 0.11 | 9 per month | 1.35 | 0.07 | 2.44 | (2.47) | 8.26 | |
| TCI | Transcontinental Realty Investors | 1.24 | 10 per month | 2.39 | 0.07 | 6.03 | (4.17) | 16.63 | |
| SITC | Site Centers Corp | (0.37) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.30 | (2.62) | 6.71 | |
| FPI | Farmland Partners | (0.05) | 9 per month | 1.09 | 0.03 | 2.03 | (1.87) | 5.49 | |
| FRPH | Frp Holdings Ord | 0.45 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.27 | (2.90) | 8.28 | |
| NLOP | Net Lease Office | (0.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.62 | (1.87) | 7.34 | |
| CMTG | Claros Mortgage Trust | (0.09) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.01 | (5.50) | 17.41 | |
| RMR | RMR Group | 0.03 | 9 per month | 1.25 | 0.04 | 2.67 | (2.17) | 9.83 | |
| CHCT | Community Healthcare Trust | 0.04 | 6 per month | 1.15 | 0.19 | 2.83 | (1.83) | 8.25 | |
| OLP | One Liberty Properties | (0.21) | 7 per month | 1.01 | (0.02) | 2.17 | (1.72) | 6.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for Five Point
For every potential investor in Five, whether a beginner or expert, Five Point's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Five Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Five. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Five Point's price trends.Five Point Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Five Point stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Five Point could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Five Point by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Five Point Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Five Point stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Five Point shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Five Point stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Five Point Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 4916.55 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.20) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.58 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.59 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.04) |
Five Point Risk Indicators
The analysis of Five Point's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Five Point's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting five stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Variance | 2.46 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Five Point
The number of cover stories for Five Point depends on current market conditions and Five Point's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Five Point is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Five Point's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Five Point Short Properties
Five Point's future price predictability will typically decrease when Five Point's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Five Point Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Five Point's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Five Point's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 147 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 430.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Five Point to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Is Multi-Family Residential REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Five Point. If investors know Five will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Five Point listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.233 | Earnings Share 1.3 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.21) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Five Point Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Five that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Five Point's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Five Point's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Five Point's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Five Point's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Five Point's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Five Point is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Five Point's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.